What Is Double Chance Betting?
Double chance betting is one of the simplest ways to reduce your risk when predicting football match outcomes. Instead of picking one result, you cover two of the three possible outcomes: home win or draw (1X), draw or away win (X2), or home win or away win (12).
The trade-off is straightforward. You get better odds of winning because you're covering more ground, but the odds you receive are much lower than picking a single outcome. It's a defensive approach to match betting, popular with anyone who wants to lower their risk.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Bookmakers calculate double chance odds by combining the implied probabilities of the two outcomes you're backing. They don't simply average the two odds. Instead, they use the formula: 1 divided by the sum of the individual implied probabilities, then apply their margin.
Here's a practical example. Suppose a home win is priced at 2.0 (50% implied probability) and a draw at 3.5 (28.6% implied probability). The combined probability is roughly 78.6%. A bookmaker offering double chance 1X might price it at 1.40 to 1.50, giving them room to profit.
The exact odds vary between bookmakers. Shopping around for the best price is always worth your time, as margins can differ significantly.
When Double Chance Betting Is Useful
Double chance is particularly valuable in specific scenarios. Cup matches and knockout competitions often feature uncertain outcomes because both teams are highly motivated and tactical approaches can vary widely. When you know a match is unpredictable but you lean slightly towards one direction, double chance lets you hedge that view.
Matches between evenly matched teams are ideal candidates. If neither team has a clear advantage, choosing between a home win and a draw (or a draw and an away win) gives you a reasonable safety net. You're saying, "I don't think this team will lose," rather than "This team will definitely win."
Double chance also works well when following a team with inconsistent form. If you fancy them to avoid defeat but aren't confident they'll win outright, 1X covers both possibilities.
Comparing Double Chance to Other Betting Markets
Double chance differs from draw no bet and Asian handicap, two other low-risk betting approaches.
Draw no bet means you bet on a team to win, but if the match ends in a draw, you get your stake back. No loss, no win. The odds are lower than a standard win bet but higher than double chance, because you're only covering one outcome instead of two. Draw no bet is better if you're confident a team will win or draw, but you want to avoid the losing outcome.
Asian handicap involves giving one team a virtual lead or deficit to eliminate the draw option. You're backing a team to win by a certain margin. Asian handicap odds are typically sharper than double chance because the market is more sophisticated, but it requires understanding how handicaps work and which lines offer value.
The Trade-Off: Lower Risk, Lower Odds
Here's the reality of double chance. Your odds are significantly lower. A home win might be 2.10, a draw 3.60, and 1X double chance might be 1.40. That difference matters over time. You win more often, but you win smaller amounts.
If you're building an accumulator, using double chance bets can make your potential return much lower because each leg is priced more cautiously. For single bets, the lower odds mean you need higher stakes to generate meaningful profit.
Practical Examples
Let's look at a real scenario. Manchester United are playing against a mid-table team. The odds are: Man Utd 1.75, draw 3.80, away win 5.50. Double chance 1X (Man Utd or draw) is priced at 1.35.
If you believe Manchester United won't lose but you're not confident they'll win by a clear margin, 1X at 1.35 is sensible. You need to stake 100 units to win 35 units. Compare that to backing a straight home win at 1.75, where you'd win 75 units on the same stake. The double chance costs you 40 units in potential profit, but removes the risk of Manchester United losing.
Another scenario: two evenly matched teams with recent injury problems on both sides. Brighton versus Newcastle, for example. Brighton are 2.45, draw 3.20, Newcastle 2.90. Double chance X2 (draw or Newcastle) is 1.50. If you think Brighton's injuries are a concern and you want to avoid backing them outright, X2 gives you a safety net.
When Double Chance Is Not Worth It
Double chance isn't always the right choice. If you genuinely believe one team will win, taking single-outcome odds at a higher price is better than protecting yourself unnecessarily. You're paying a "certainty premium" that eats into your long-term returns.
In highly liquid markets like Premier League matches, the margins on double chance bets can be wider than on single outcomes. You're paying more to the bookmaker. Shop around, because some bookmakers are more aggressive with double chance pricing than others.
One-sided matches are poor candidates for double chance. If you're backing a clear favourite, the odds are already low enough that double chance makes them almost valueless. A top-four team playing a relegation-bound side might be 1.20 to win. Double chance 1X is 1.10. That's barely worth your time.
Summary
Double chance betting is a useful tool for reducing your risk on uncertain matches. It's perfect when you want to back a team to avoid defeat without committing to a win, and it's straightforward to understand and use. The cost of that security is lower odds, which compounds when you're building multi-leg accumulators.
Use it when matches are genuinely unpredictable or when you have a moderately positive view of a team rather than a strong conviction. Compare it with draw no bet and Asian handicap options to find the best value for your specific prediction. And always shop across bookmakers, because the margins on double chance vary considerably.
In Summary
- Double chance covers two of three possible match outcomes, reducing your risk but lowering your potential returns.
- It works best on unpredictable matches or when you believe a team will avoid defeat.
- Always compare prices across bookmakers and consider whether single-outcome bets offer better value for your confidence level.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the difference between double chance 1X and draw no bet? Double chance 1X backs both a home win and a draw. Draw no bet backs only a home win, but refunds your stake if the match ends in a draw. Draw no bet odds are higher than 1X because you're not covering the draw outcome.
Can I use double chance bets in accumulators? Yes, you can include double chance bets in multi-leg accumulators. However, because each leg has lower odds, your overall potential return will be much lower than using single-outcome bets. Double chance accumulators are defensive bets.
What does 12 double chance mean? Double chance 12 backs both a home win and an away win, excluding the draw. You win if either team wins outright. This is useful when you expect a decisive result but you're unsure which team will win.
Are double chance bets worth it on heavy favourites? Generally, no. If a team is already heavily favoured (1.20 or lower), adding double chance protection to their odds makes them very low. You'd be better off taking the single-outcome odds or skipping the bet entirely.
How do bookmakers calculate double chance odds? Bookmakers combine the implied probabilities of the two outcomes and apply their margin. They use the formula: 1 divided by the sum of the implied probabilities. Exact pricing varies between bookmakers, so comparing odds is important.
Is double chance the same as Asian handicap? No. Double chance covers two of three outcomes without adding handicaps. Asian handicap eliminates the draw by giving one team a virtual advantage or disadvantage. They're different ways to reduce your risk.