Double Chance Betting: 1X, X2 and 12 Explained

Selection map

The codes use 1 for home, X for draw, and 2 for away. The qualifying period follows the accepted market. Betfair's current football rules provide one operator example in which default match markets use 90 minutes plus stoppage time unless stated otherwise.

Worked return

An illustrative GBP 10 stake on 1X at decimal odds 1.45 produces:

Gross return = 10 * 1.45 = 14.50

Net profit = 14.50 - 10 = 4.50

A home win or draw returns GBP 14.50. An away win returns GBP 0. There is no refund state in the basic double-chance product.

Coverage is not value

Suppose an illustrative probability estimate assigns 0.47 to a home win, 0.28 to a draw, and 0.25 to an away win.

Estimated 1X probability = 0.47 + 0.28 = 0.75

At decimal odds 1.30, one-unit expected value is:

EV = (0.75 * 0.30) - (0.25 * 1) = -0.025

The selection covers 75% under the illustrative estimate but still has negative expected value at that price. OpenStax describes expected value as a probability-weighted payoff, not a ranking by win probability alone.

Double chance versus draw no bet

The draw is the key difference. Double chance treats it as a winning outcome; draw no bet returns the stake. Prices cannot be compared without the payoff distinction. See draw no bet explained for the conditional probability calculation.

Double chance versus two separate bets

Two stakes on home and draw can create coverage of the same 1X outcomes, but the return depends on both accepted prices and stake allocation. A named double-chance selection has one price and one stake. Compare the complete outcome payoff rather than assuming either route is cheaper.

Checklist

1. Translate the code to its two included 1X2 outcomes.
2. Confirm regulation time or another stated period.
3. Record whether a draw wins or loses.
4. Calculate gross return and net result separately.
5. Compare the selection probability with the accepted price, not coverage alone.

Derive the three probabilities consistently

Start from one complete 1X2 probability vector. If home, draw, and away probabilities are 0.47, 0.28, and 0.25, then 1X is 0.75, X2 is 0.53, and 12 is 0.72. Each double-chance probability is the sum of two mutually exclusive 1X2 outcomes.

Use two identities as checks:

• P(1X) + P(2) = 1
• P(X2) + P(1) = 1
• P(12) + P(X) = 1

Do not add raw bookmaker implied probabilities from an overround market and label the result fair. Remove margin from the complete 1X2 snapshot under a named method first, then form the double-chance sums. Save both the raw and adjusted vectors so a reviewer can reproduce the comparison.

Finally, compare every product by net payoff. A shorter double-chance price may still be preferable under one probability estimate, but the conclusion comes from expected value, not from the number of covered outcomes.

Continue learning

• Next guide: Draw No Bet Explained
• Related guide: First Goalscorer Betting
• Definition: Double Chance

Assumptions and limitations

The probabilities and prices are illustrative. DraftKings' soccer rules and Betfair are current operator examples. Abandoned matches, enhanced products, extra time, and promotions can change settlement.