How Goalscorer Markets Work
Goalscorer betting splits into three main categories: first goalscorer (which player scores the opening goal), last goalscorer (which player scores the final goal), and anytime goalscorer (any goal the player scores at any point).
First goalscorer bets are settled when any player scores the match's opening goal. You win if your selected player scores that goal. Last goalscorer is settled on the final goal of the match, which can be tricky if the match ends and you're waiting for confirmation of goal scorers. Anytime goalscorer is simplest: you win if your player scores at any point, regardless of when or whether they score multiple goals.
Each market has different odds. First goalscorer is typically lower odds than anytime, because scoring first is rarer than scoring at any point. Last goalscorer is less liquid and less commonly offered.
First Goalscorer vs Anytime Goalscorer Odds
The odds difference between first and anytime is significant. A player priced 6.0 to score first might be 1.80 to score anytime. The first goalscorer price reflects the low probability of that specific player being the match's first scorer, while anytime reflects the player's general likelihood of scoring.
First goalscorer odds depend on shot volume, starting position, and team possession patterns. Attacking midfielders and strikers who take shots early in matches will have better first goalscorer odds. Defenders and goalkeepers won't have first goalscorer odds at all.
Anytime goalscorer odds are more correlated with each player's total xG (expected goals) for the season, recent form, and role in the team. A substitute striker might not be favoured for first goalscorer but could have decent anytime odds if they have a good conversion rate.
What Happens If Your Player Doesn't Play
If your selected player doesn't play, the bet is typically voided and your stake is returned. This applies to both first and anytime goalscorer. It's a protective measure, as injuries or tactical changes before kickoff could affect your selection.
Some bookmakers offer "first goalscorer in play" markets where you can select a player after the match starts and you know the team sheets. These have different rules, as players are confirmed to be playing. Check the bookmaker's terms, as rules vary.
Own Goals and Goalscorer Bets
Own goals complicate goalscorer betting. If an own goal is scored, it's credited to the defending player who touched the ball last, not the attacking player who might have deflected it. Own goals can affect first goalscorer bets if they occur early.
For example, if Team A's defender scores an own goal in the 10th minute, that player is credited as the first goalscorer. If you'd backed a Team A attacking player to score first, your bet is a loser, even though an own goal technically counts as a goal.
Anytime goalscorer bets are also affected. If your player is the defending team and an own goal is credited to them, that counts as a goal against them in the anytime market. Rules vary by bookmaker, so read the terms carefully.
Key Statistics for Goalscorer Betting
Shots per game is your starting point. A striker taking 4-5 shots per match has more scoring opportunities than one taking 1-2. Compare this across the season and in recent form (last five matches). A player in hot form who's taking 5+ shots per game is a better candidate than one in poor form despite season-long statistics.
Penalty taker duties matter enormously. Players designated to take penalties get higher xG and score more frequently in low-variance ways. A penalty taker averaging 0.3 xG per 90 might score every two or three matches, while a non-penalty-taking midfielder with 0.3 xG per 90 might score once every five matches.
Expected goals per 90 (xG/90) is more reliable than raw shots. A player taking 5 low-quality shots is less likely to score than one taking 2 high-quality shots. xG accounts for shot location, defensive pressure, and type. A striker with 0.4+ xG per 90 is a consistent threat.
Minutes played is critical. A player on the bench who comes on for the final 20 minutes has fewer chances to score than a regular starter. Check whether your selection is likely to start and play 90 minutes. Injuries and tactical changes affect starting lineups.
Position and role matter. Central strikers score more regularly than wingers or attacking midfielders. Look at how many goals per 10 shots each player converts. Top strikers convert 15-20%, while wingers might convert 8-12%.
Recent form is underrated in goalscorer betting. A player who hasn't scored in six matches but was on a hot streak in the previous month is worth considering if they're playing an easier opponent. Form can be cyclical. Conversely, a player in a scoring streak facing a top-tier defence might be overpriced.
The Anytime Goalscorer Accumulator Trend
Anytime goalscorer accumulators have exploded in popularity. You select multiple players to score from different matches, and if all score, you win a large return. A 5-leg accumulator at 1.50 odds per leg returns 7.6 times your stake.
The appeal is obvious, but the maths is harsh. If each leg is 1.50 (66% implied probability), your five-leg accumulator is only 57% likely to hit. That's assuming the bookmaker has priced the odds accurately. In reality, they've priced conservatively, meaning your true probability is lower. Most accumulators lose.
The most profitable anytime goalscorer accumulators isolate mismatches: strong attacking teams against weak defences, with in-form strikers playing at home. Avoid even matchups. A five-leg accumulator where each match is competitive and the favourite is 1.60 is terrible value.
Building accumulators with players facing teams conceding 2+ goals per match and who are on scoring form (goals in last 3 matches) is more sound. You're stacking the odds in your favour with research rather than hoping.
Do Goalscorer Markets Offer Genuine Value?
Goalscorer markets are more heavily researched than standard match betting by professional bettors and syndicates. The odds are often fairly priced or even slightly against you due to bookmaker margins. It's not impossible to find value, but it requires consistent research and spotting inefficiencies.
First goalscorer markets are occasionally soft, because casual bettors select popular names without considering who's likely to take early shots. A less obvious choice might be overpriced. Anytime goalscorer markets are tighter, as more serious bettors participate.
The realistic view is that goalscorer markets are fun bets where you might find isolated value if you do your homework, rather than a profitable long-term strategy for most bettors. They're best treated as entertainment with occasional research-backed selections rather than a core betting approach.
Summary
Goalscorer betting spans first, anytime, and last goalscorer markets, each with different odds and probabilities. First goalscorer is harder to predict and priced higher in odds format (lower implied probability) than anytime. The key statistics are shots per game, penalty-taking duties, xG per 90, minutes played, and recent form.
Own goals can count as goalscorer bets in some cases, and players not playing see bets voided. Anytime goalscorer accumulators are popular but require careful selection of mismatches to offer value. Overall, goalscorer markets are fairly efficiently priced, so treat them as entertainment where your research might occasionally find value rather than as a reliable profit source.
In Summary
- Goalscorer betting covers first, anytime, and last goalscorer markets.
- First goalscorer odds are lower (harder to predict), anytime are more reliable odds.
- Research shots per game, xG per 90, penalty duties, and form.
- These markets are fairly efficiently priced, so value is occasional rather than consistent.
Frequently Asked Questions
What's the difference between first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer? First goalscorer pays only if your selected player scores the match's opening goal. Anytime goalscorer pays if they score at any point. First goalscorer odds are much lower (higher odds format) because scoring first is rarer than scoring at all.
What happens if a player gets injured and doesn't play? The bet is voided and your stake is returned. This applies to both first and anytime goalscorer. You're protected from changes in team news that occur before kickoff.
Are own goals credited as goals in goalscorer betting? Own goals are credited to the defending player who touched the ball last. If an own goal is scored, the defending player gets credit. This can affect first goalscorer bets if an own goal happens early.
How do I identify value in goalscorer markets? Compare xG per 90 against odds. A player with 0.4+ xG per 90 priced at 1.90 for anytime goalscorer might be good value if they're starting and playing 90 minutes. Cross-reference shots per game, conversion rate, and recent form to spot players bookmakers have underpriced.
Are anytime goalscorer accumulators profitable? Rarely. A 5-leg accumulator at 1.50 odds per leg is only 57% likely to hit, assuming fair odds. Bookmakers price conservatively, so true probability is lower. Profit accumulators only if you've identified mismatches (strong teams versus weak defences) with in-form strikers.
Should I avoid goalscorer bets? Not necessarily. They're entertaining and occasionally offer value if you research effectively. Just don't treat them as a core betting strategy. They're better as selective bets where you've done homework, rather than a reliable income source.