Harry Kane's Ballon d'Or favourite tag marks a stunning reversal of fortune

Harry Kane has been installed as the bookmakers' favourite to win the 2026 Ballon d'Or, topping a 30-man shortlist that also includes Jude Bellingham and Declan Rice, after France Football revealed its nominees on Tuesday Guardian sport reported. On the women's list, Alessia Russo and Alex Greenwood carry English hopes into a race thrown wide open by the shock omission of three-time winner Aitana Bonmatí.

The winners will be announced at a ceremony in London on 26 October, the first time the event has left Paris since it began 70 years ago according to the Guardian. For a player long defined by near misses, Kane's presence at the top of the betting suggests the voting bloc is finally ready to reward substance over silverware alone.

Kane's rise from nearly-man to favourite

For years, Kane's story was one of individual brilliance undercut by collective disappointment. He never won a major trophy at Tottenham Hotspur, and England's near misses, including the 2018 World Cup semi-final and the 2020 Euros final, only added to the narrative of a generational talent who couldn't get over the line.

A Bundesliga double changes the conversation

That changed last season. Kane scored a club-record 61 goals in 51 games as Bayern Munich won the Bundesliga and domestic cup double, finally landing the major honour that had eluded him throughout his career the Guardian's reporting confirms. He then added six goals for England at this summer's World Cup, a tournament where his club form translated directly onto the biggest international stage.

The BBC Sport frames the scale of his season differently, citing 73 goals for club and country combined across all competitions. The two figures aren't in conflict: the Guardian's 61 refers specifically to his Bayern Munich league and cup output, while the BBC's tally folds in his full international programme including the World Cup goals. Either way, the volume and the trophies now sit side by side for the first time in Kane's career.

Yamal and Rodri lead the chasing pack

Kane isn't running unopposed. Lamine Yamal, who won La Liga and the World Cup with Spain, sits second in the betting, with his Barcelona and Spain teammate Rodri close behind. Defending champion Ousmane Dembélé is nominated again, alongside France colleague Kylian Mbappé, who overtook Lionel Messi's all-time World Cup goals record with 22 at this summer's tournament. Lionel Messi, an eight-time winner, also features after steering Argentina to a World Cup runner-up finish and lifting the MLS Cup with Inter Miami.

England's biggest Ballon d'Or showing in years

Kane isn't the only Englishman on the list. Jude Bellingham and Declan Rice both shone at the World Cup, with Rice also playing a central role in Arsenal ending a 22-year wait for the Premier League title.

• Harry Kane: 61 goals in 51 games for Bayern Munich's Bundesliga and cup double, plus six World Cup goals for England
• Jude Bellingham: nominated after a strong World Cup with England and continued impact at Real Madrid
• Declan Rice: helped Arsenal end a 22-year Premier League title drought and impressed at the World Cup

Three England men on a single Ballon d'Or shortlist is a rare occurrence, and it arrives at the exact moment the ceremony itself is relocating to London, adding an extra layer of symbolism for a national contingent that has often felt overlooked by the traditionally Paris-centric award.

Women's race wide open after Bonmatí's shock omission

The bigger talking point in the women's field is who isn't on the list. Aitana Bonmatí, winner of the past three Ballon d'Or awards, missed selection after an injury-hit season, despite Barcelona's quadruple-winning campaign that included another Champions League title.

Who fills the void

Her absence opens the door for a genuine changing of the guard. Two-time winner Alexia Putellas, Ewa Pajor and Melchie Dumornay are among the favourites to succeed her the Guardian notes, though England's own contenders shouldn't be discounted.

Alessia Russo finished third in last year's voting and followed it with another prolific campaign, scoring 24 goals in 40 club appearances. Manchester City captain Alex Greenwood lifted the Women's Super League and FA Cup double last season, giving her a strong case for recognition alongside Russo.

Winner of the past three awards, Bonmatí did not make the cut after missing most of the season through injury.

With the reigning champion sidelined from contention, this looks like the most unpredictable women's race in years, and English interest has rarely been stronger.

Why London, and what the 70th anniversary means

The Ballon d'Or ceremony is moving from its traditional Paris home to London this year to mark the 70th anniversary of the first award, won by England great Stanley Matthews in 1956 Guardian sport confirmed.

A symbolic homecoming

The choice of venue is no accident. Matthews remains the only English winner of the men's award in its history, and staging the 70th anniversary ceremony in London, with three Englishmen on the men's shortlist and two Englishwomen on the women's list, gives the occasion a distinctly national resonance it hasn't had before.

For Kane specifically, the symbolism is difficult to ignore. A ceremony honouring the award's English roots, held in the city where he first made his name, could prove the fitting backdrop for the moment he finally sheds the nearly-man tag for good.

What happens next

The 30-strong shortlists on both the men's and women's sides will now be scrutinised by the France Football voting panel ahead of the 26 October ceremony in London. Expect betting markets to tighten further around Kane, Yamal and Rodri on the men's side, while the women's race between Putellas, Pajor, Dumornay, Russo and Greenwood remains genuinely open.

For English football, the presence of five nominees across both lists, and the ceremony's first ever move outside Paris, makes this a genuinely historic year regardless of who lifts the trophy. Whether voters ultimately reward Kane's trophy-laden season at Bayern Munich over the raw numbers posted by Yamal or Mbappé will say plenty about how the game's most prestigious individual prize weighs club success against international achievement.