Wolves Host Derby With Points to Prove as County's Winless Run Deepens

Wolves versus Derby. On paper, home advantage, a sold crowd, a side coming into this on the back of two wins from five. You'd take that. The thing is, form tables don't tell you about desire. They don't tell you who wants it more. And right now, neither of these clubs looks like a side playing with genuine conviction.

Wolves: The Basics Are Not Being Met

Wolves have two wins, one draw, and two losses across their last five Championship matches. Wolves beat Watford 1-0, then drew 1-1 with Portsmouth, then beat Burnley 2-1. After that, Wolves lost 3-1 to Bolton Wanderers and then lost 1-0 to Middlesbrough. Two defeats to follow two wins. That is not momentum. That is a team that cannot sustain standards for more than a couple of matches in a row.

Five goals scored in those five matches. Six conceded. A clean sheet percentage of just twenty. Listen, if you are keeping one clean sheet in every five games, your defensive basics are not right. End of. Wolves have the platform to build something here at home, but they have shown they can collapse just as quickly as they can perform.

Derby: No Wins, No Clean Sheets, No Excuses

Derby's record across their last five Championship matches is zero wins, three draws, and two losses. Zero clean sheets in all five. Eighty percent of their matches ended with both teams scoring. That tells you everything about their defensive attitude. You cannot build anything on those foundations.

The losses were damaging. Derby lost 4-1 to QPR and lost 1-0 to Stoke City. Derby drew 1-1 with Sheffield United, drew 1-1 with Wrexham, and drew 1-1 with Burnley. Four goals conceded in one match against QPR. That is not a tactical problem. That is a compete problem. That is players not doing the basics when the game turns against them.

Derby have scored four goals across these five matches. They are not creating enough. They are not defending well enough. The thing is, when you are drawing three and losing two, something has to change. You cannot keep accepting draws as a result when you have not kept a single clean sheet.

What Has to Happen

Wolves need to start with the same intensity that got them the win against Watford and the win against Burnley. Accountability matters here. If they switch off the way they did against Bolton and Middlesbrough, Derby, for all their problems, will nick something. Derby's three draws show they are capable of staying in matches. Wolves cannot afford to be complacent.

For Derby, this is about attitude more than anything else. They have shipped eight goals in five matches on the road. Eight. Away from home, you have to be hard to beat. You have to compete for every second ball, every header, every set piece. There is no evidence right now that Derby are doing that consistently.

The Bet

Wolves to win. I am not getting complicated about this. Derby have not won in five. They have kept no clean sheets. Wolves, at home, with a reasonable if inconsistent record, should have enough to see this off. One selection. Back it properly.

Listen, this is not a glamour tie. It is a Tuesday night in the Championship and both clubs have questions to answer. But Wolves have home advantage and a marginally better recent record. That is enough for me. Wolves to win. End of.