St.
Jay Thompson ·
Last updated: Sunday 2 August 2026, match day. Kick-off 1pm.
Right, it's here. Match day. Scottish Premiership football is back and we're kicking off with St. Johnstone hosting Kilmarnock at McDiarmid Park. Get the kettle on, get settled, because this one actually has a fair bit going on underneath the surface.
The Big Picture
Look, I'll be straight with you. St. Johnstone have no form data loaded in the system for this season yet. Fresh start. Clean slate. That always makes things interesting because you're working with what you know about these clubs rather than a string of recent results telling you the story.
Kilmarnock, though? Kilmarnock we've got something to work with. And honestly, the numbers are pretty tasty.
Kilmarnock's Form: Actually Decent
Over their last ten overall, Kilmarnock have gone W-W-W-W-L-D-L-W-W-D. Six wins, two draws, two losses. Twenty goals scored, ten conceded. That is a solid return, mate. In their last five overall they've gone W-W-W-W-L, scoring thirteen and only letting in three. That's a team in form.
Now here's the thing. Away from home in their last five, the picture is a bit more mixed. Two wins, one draw, two losses. Nine goals for, seven against. That away clean sheet percentage is sitting at just 20%. So Kilmarnock travel well in terms of scoring but they do leave the door open at the back on the road.
Their home form over the last five has been excellent by the way, W-W-D-W-W with eleven goals scored and only three conceded. Sixty percent clean sheets at home. So they can defend when the conditions suit them. Away from home is a different conversation.
The Model's View
The model also gives St. Johnstone a 47% chance of being ahead at half-time. So it's not just backing them to nick it late, it thinks they'll be on top throughout.
Confidence level is 57%. Not screaming certainty. But it's a genuine lean.
The Injury Situation
One injury flag for Kilmarnock and it's a long-term one. A player has been out since July last year and there's no expected return date listed. That's a significant absence over a long period. Without a name attached in the data I can't tell you exactly who it is, but any long-term absentee going into the new season is worth noting. It's one less option for the Kilmarnock manager and potentially a gap that hasn't been fully addressed in pre-season.
No injury flags at all on the St. Johnstone side based on what we've got. That's a positive for the home side heading into the first day.
Confirmed Lineups
No confirmed lineups in the data just yet as of this update. Keep an eye on both clubs' official channels closer to the 1pm kick-off for the team sheets. I'll be watching.
On goals... this is where it gets interesting. BTTS Yes is 1.67, BTTS No is 2.10. Kilmarnock's away BTTS percentage over their last five is 40%. Their overall BTTS over the last ten is also sitting at 40%. So it's genuinely a coin flip on whether both teams score. The model actually leans towards BTTS No at a 49.8% probability versus the market's 45.5% implied. Tiny edge but it's there.
Over 2.5 goals is 1.80. Kilmarnock's away games have gone over 2.5 in 80% of their last five on the road. Their overall last ten has 70% over 2.5. So the goals are probably coming... but the model gives over 2.5 a 53.5% chance while the market implies 55.6%. That's actually negative edge, meaning the market has slightly overpriced it. Interesting.
Jay's Match Day Verdict
Enjoy the game. Come on then, let's get this season started.