New York RB's Leaking Defence Faces San Diego Test in Late-Night MLS Clash

This one kicks off at half past midnight UK time on Sunday morning, so most of you reading this will be doing so before you decide whether to stay up or set an alarm. Let me save you some deliberation. This is not a match full of certainty. But there is enough in the numbers to form a view, and I have one.

New York Red Bulls: Five Matches, Zero Wins

The thing is, when you look at New York's recent record, there is nowhere to hide. No wins in their last five in Major League Soccer. Two draws, three defeats. Seven goals conceded. Two scored. That is not a blip. That is a team that cannot defend and cannot score. Both problems at the same time is about as bad as it gets.

Their last result was a 0-2 defeat to Los Angeles FC. Before that, a 0-0 draw with Seattle Sounders. Before that, a 1-3 loss to Philadelphia Union. They managed a 1-1 draw with Chicago Fire and a 0-1 defeat to Nashville SC to round out that miserable run. Look at those results and tell me where the desire is. I cannot see it.

Go back ten matches and it gets worse. New York have won two, drawn two, and lost six in that sample. They have shipped 17 goals. Seventeen. A clean sheet percentage of ten percent. That means they have kept one clean sheet in ten matches. One. The defence is not a defence. It is a suggestion.

Their two wins in that extended run came against Orlando City, 3-2, and Sporting KC, 2-1. Creditable results, but both came with goals going in at the other end too. New York struggle to keep things tight. That is not an opinion. That is what the evidence says.

San Diego: More Encouraging, But Not Convincing

San Diego are not flying either. Their last five in MLS show two wins and three defeats. Goals for nine, goals against eight. They have been involved in plenty of action but the results have gone against them more often than not in that recent window.

Their most recent result was a 2-3 defeat to SJ Earthquakes. Before that, a 0-1 loss to Orlando City. So they come into this on a two-match losing run. That matters. Going into a road game on the back of two consecutive defeats is a test of attitude.

The positives for San Diego are there if you look back slightly further. They beat LA Galaxy 3-1 and hammered Colorado Rapids 3-0 in consecutive matches before that losing run started. So the goals are in them. When they are on it, they can put teams away. The question is whether they bring that version of themselves to New York.

Over ten matches, San Diego have four wins, one draw, and five losses. Their clean sheet percentage over that window sits at thirty percent, which is modest but streets ahead of New York's ten percent. They are the more defensively reliable side coming in. That is not saying much, but in this context it is relevant.

The Core Problem for New York

Listen, New York's issue is straightforward. They cannot stop conceding. Seventeen goals in ten matches at home is not a tactical problem. It is an accountability problem. Someone needs to look at that backline and ask hard questions. Are they competing for every ball? Are they tracking runners? Are they doing the basics?

Two goals scored in the last five matches tells you the attack is just as broken. They drew a blank against Los Angeles FC, drew a blank against Seattle Sounders, drew a blank against Nashville SC. Three scoreless matches in five is a team that has lost its belief. That is the only way to describe it.

When you are not scoring and you are conceding freely, home advantage counts for very little. The crowd can only do so much if the players are not doing their jobs.

What San Diego Need to Do

The thing is, San Diego will know what is in front of them. New York are there to be beaten. The question is whether San Diego can bring the intensity they showed when they beat LA Galaxy and Colorado Rapids. In those matches they looked like a team that could compete at this level. Against SJ Earthquakes and Orlando City, they looked like a team that could not defend a lead or a set of basic responsibilities.

If San Diego turn up with the same standards they showed in those two wins, they have a real opportunity here. New York's defence will give them chances. That much is certain based on what we have seen.

The Verdict

I am not going to dress this up. New York Red Bulls are a team in poor form, low on confidence, and unable to keep the ball out of their own net. San Diego are inconsistent, but they have shown they can score goals and they arrive with a better defensive record over the same window.

The match has goals in it. New York have kept one clean sheet in ten matches. San Diego have been involved in plenty of open games. Both teams both to score has come up in sixty percent of San Diego's last ten, and forty percent of New York's last five. That is not nothing.

My read is San Diego to win. They are the better side on current evidence. New York at home means nothing when your home form is that bad. San Diego to take three points. End of.