Can LAFC Shake Their Draw Habit as Austin Arrive Unbeaten in Five?

Thursday brings a late-night fixture in Major League Soccer that tells two very different stories. Los Angeles FC are grinding through a flat spell at home, unable to string wins together and leaking points they cannot keep dropping. Austin, quietly, have not lost in five. This match matters. Neither side can afford to treat it otherwise.

LAFC: Stuck in Neutral

Listen, three draws in five matches is not a form run. It is a problem. LAFC's last five MLS results read W, L, D, D, D. One win. One loss. Three draws. That is the output of a side that has stopped competing for three points and started settling for one. It is unacceptable at home level.

The numbers back up what the eye tells you. LAFC have scored six goals in those five matches and conceded six. They are not dominating games and seeing them out. They are sharing the spoils and calling it a result. That is not the standards of a team that wants to go anywhere in this league.

The thing is, LAFC are not toothless. Look back ten matches and you see a 4-0 win over Sporting KC and a 3-1 win over Real Salt Lake. The quality is in there. What is missing right now is the desire to impose it consistently. A 1-3 loss to Sporting KC in their most recent outing raised serious questions about this side's defensive attitude. You concede three goals to Sporting KC and you have to look your backline in the eye and demand answers. End of.

Their clean sheet record over ten matches sits at 30 per cent. That is one clean sheet in every three games, roughly. Not good enough for a team playing at home with genuine attacking talent available to them. If LAFC do not sort out what is happening defensively, Austin will find gaps.

Austin: Quietly Dangerous

Austin deserve more credit than they are probably getting. Five MLS matches without a loss. Two wins. Three draws. No defeats. That is a solid run of form, and the pattern of their results tells you something about how they go about their business.

Austin have beaten Vancouver Whitecaps and Portland Timbers in that five-match spell. They drew with Colorado Rapids, SJ Earthquakes, and Philadelphia Union. Those are not soft results. Those are teams you have to earn points against.

The thing is, Austin have not kept a single clean sheet in those five matches. Every game they play, the opposition scores. Their last ten MLS matches show a btts percentage of 80 per cent. Both teams score. That is almost a guarantee with Austin involved. LAFC should take note. If Austin concede every game, that means LAFC can score. But it also means Austin score in every game. This is not a fixture where you sit in and hope for the best.

Austin do carry absentee concerns into this one. Two players are listed as unavailable for the visiting side. One has a moderate injury with an expected return date that has already passed on paper, though the record shows them still listed as out. A second player was handed a suspension in mid-September. Whether either is available for this fixture, the data does not confirm they have returned. LAFC's coaching staff will know about this, and they should be looking to exploit any disruption in Austin's structure.

Head to Head: One Meeting, Zero Goals

These sides have met once in MLS. The result was a 0-0 draw. No goals scored. Both teams kept clean sheets. You can draw whatever conclusions you like from one match, but I will say this: the evidence since that meeting in March suggests both teams have become more open. LAFC score more now. Austin concede in every game. A repeat of that goalless stalemate would surprise me.

The only head-to-head data we have says neither team scored. The form data since then says goals are likely. I trust the recent form over a single meeting from earlier in the year.

The Key Battle

LAFC need to stop being passive. Three consecutive draws tells you a team is not imposing itself. They are reacting to games rather than controlling them. At home, against an Austin side that has not kept a clean sheet in five, LAFC have an opportunity. They need to come out with intensity, take the game to Austin early, and not allow it to drift into the kind of comfortable, no-one-really-wants-to-win midfield battle that has defined their recent output.

Austin, for their part, will probe. They have been hard to beat. They compete. But they ship goals in every match right now, and LAFC's attack, when it fires, is capable of punishing that. The 4-0 against Sporting KC showed what this side can do when the attitude is right.

The Verdict

LAFC have to win this. Not because Austin are weak. Because LAFC have been drifting and a home game against a side without a loss, rather than without good form, is exactly the test that reveals character. Austin will score. That much the data screams at you. Whether LAFC can score more is the question that matters.

I am backing LAFC to win this one. Home ground. Fans expecting a reaction. A visiting side that leaks goals. This is the night LAFC stop drawing and start competing properly again. They have the quality. They need to show the desire. I will be watching to see which LAFC turns up: the one that beat Sporting KC 4-0, or the one that drew with DC United without scoring a goal. Those are two very different football teams wearing the same kit.