Hearts vs Benfica result and match review

Last updated: Thursday 13 August 2026. Kick-off at 19:45 UK time.

This is the match day preview, and the picture it paints for Hearts has not improved since revision five. If anything, the data has clarified further. Benfica arrive at Tynecastle having already dismantled this Hearts side 6-1 in the first leg just seven days ago, which means this fixture carries the full weight of context: Hearts need to score goals, and their record suggests they cannot even manage that without conceding a significant number themselves.

The Form Picture Is Brutal for Hearts

Let us start with what the data actually shows, because the headline numbers are as bad as you will see for any side playing European football at this level. Hearts have two results recorded in this competition so far this season: two losses, zero goals scored, six conceded. That is the entirety of the sample size, which is admittedly small, but the direction of travel is unambiguous. Their home form in this competition shows a 2-0 defeat, which means they have not scored a single goal across either leg of this tie combined.

The interesting thing is that this is not a temporary blip dressed up as a context issue. There is no progressive build-up data, no underlying xG numbers to suggest Hearts are creating chances and simply not converting. The data returns null across shots, possession, and expected goals in the away context, which tells you the volume of competitive data we are working with here. What we do have confirms the scorelines were not flukes.

Benfica, by contrast, have been ruthless. In their overall last ten games across all competitions they have won two and lost one, scoring twelve goals and conceding three. Their home record is two wins from two, scoring eleven and conceding just one. They average 24 shots per game, eleven on target, and hold possession at 67 percent. Those are not just good numbers. Those are numbers that describe a side structurally dominant in build-up, capable of sustaining pressure across ninety minutes, and efficient when it counts. PPDA, which measures how many passes a team allows an opponent per defensive action and gives us a proxy for pressing intensity, is not available in this dataset, but the shots-on-target volume alone tells you Benfica are not a side that lets games drift.

The First Leg Context Changes Everything About This Preview

The head-to-head record between these two sides consists of precisely one meeting. That meeting was last week. Benfica won 6-1. Average goals per game across their head-to-head: seven. Both teams scored. The market has remembered this.

The Injury Situation

There is one confirmed injury in the data, and it belongs to Benfica. A player is listed as out with a major injury, started in May, with no expected return date. No name is available in the dataset, but the severity classification is as high as it gets. The interesting thing is this has not materially affected Benfica's output across the recorded games, which is what you would expect from a squad of their depth and quality. For Hearts, no injury data is recorded, which does not mean their squad is fully fit, only that no specific absences have been flagged in this dataset.

Confirmed lineups had not been published at the time of this update. As always, check the official club channels closer to the 19:45 kick-off.

What the Signals Model Says

The Betting Angle Worth Considering

Final Assessment

This is a second leg where the tie is functionally over. Benfica are the dominant side across every measurable dimension, they have already proven that against this specific opponent, and they carry the structural advantages of possession, shot volume, and clinical finishing into Tynecastle. Hearts will need something extraordinary to change the narrative. The data does not suggest that is coming. Benfica to win, goals expected, and the away team total market is where the clearest value sits at this price.