Juventus Head to Be'er Sheva With a Point to Prove in the Europa League

Thursday evening. Europa League football. Hapoel Be'er Sheva hosting Juventus. On paper, this one writes itself. The thing is, football still has to be played. So let us look at what the evidence actually tells us.

Hapoel Be'er Sheva: The Numbers Are Brutal

Four completed Europa League matches for Be'er Sheva. Zero wins. One draw. Three defeats. One goal scored and eight conceded. That is not a rough patch. That is a team that has not found a way to compete at this level.

The lone draw came against Dinamo Zagreb back in September, a 0-0. Since then, Be'er Sheva lost to AZ Alkmaar, lost 0-4 to Union Saint-Gilloise, and lost 0-2 to OFI. No goals scored in three consecutive matches. Listen, you cannot build anything on that. The basics are not there.

Their clean sheet percentage across this Europa League sample sits at twenty-five percent, which sounds reasonable until you realise the one clean sheet came in a goalless draw. The desire to defend as a unit, to make it hard, to make the opposition earn every yard. I am not seeing evidence of it. That is unacceptable at any level of professional football.

Juventus: Doing the Job

Juventus have three wins and one draw from their four completed Europa League matches. Eleven goals scored. Four conceded. That is a side that knows how to compete and knows how to close games out.

The standout result is the 5-0 win against NEC Nijmegen in September. After that, Juventus beat Celta Vigo 2-1, drew 2-2 with Rennes, and then beat AZ Alkmaar 2-1 in their most recent outing. That Rennes draw is the only blemish. Juventus dropped points but they did not stop competing. They came back and won their next match. That is what standards look like.

Their clean sheet percentage in this competition is twenty-five percent, same as Be'er Sheva, so they are not airtight at the back. The 75 percent both-teams-to-score rate across their last four tells you there are goals at both ends when Juventus are involved. But the difference between these two sides is goals scored. Eleven to one. End of.

The Matchup

Be'er Sheva are at home and that matters. Home supporters, familiar surroundings, something to play for. I will give them that. But I cannot give them much more based on what I have seen in this competition. They have not scored in three straight Europa League games. Juventus have scored in all four. The attitude and accountability required to change that inside ninety minutes against a side of Juventus's quality would have to be exceptional.

Juventus will not need to do anything clever here. They need to stay organised, compete for the ball, and execute the basics. If they do that, the gap in quality should show. The question is whether they come to Israel fully switched on or whether they treat this as a fixture to manage. That mental approach will determine the margin more than anything else.

Connor's Call

I do not need a laptop to tell me that a team with one goal in four Europa League matches is in serious trouble against a Juventus side that has scored eleven. Be'er Sheva need something extraordinary to happen. I am backing Juventus to win. Conviction bet, one selection, nothing fancy. The evidence is clear and I trust my eyes.