Levski Sofia Can Exploit a Lillestrøm Side That Cannot Keep the Ball Out of Their Net

Thursday night. Europa League. Sofia. And the numbers on Lillestrøm are genuinely difficult to ignore.

In five completed Europa League matches before this kickoff, Lillestrøm have conceded eleven goals. Eleven. They have kept zero clean sheets. Zero. That is not a defensive wobble. That is a structural problem. That is a back line that does not compete at the required level, and you do not need anything other than your own two eyes to see it.

Levski Sofia: Doing the Basics Right

The thing is, Levski are not a glamour side. Nobody is writing songs about them. But look at their last four Europa League matches and you see a team that understands what is required.

Two wins, one draw, one loss. Levski beat Jagiellonia Białystok 1-0. They beat Viktoria Plzeň 2-1. They drew 1-1 with NEC Nijmegen. Their only defeat in that sample was a 1-0 loss to Salzburg, and Salzburg are not a side you feel embarrassed losing to narrowly. Four goals scored, three conceded. A 25 per cent clean sheet rate. It is not spectacular. But it is a team that competes.

At home, in front of their own supporters, with form like that behind them, they will be confident. They should be confident. Confidence built on results is the only kind that matters.

Lillestrøm: The Numbers Are Unacceptable

Listen, I have no interest in being cruel for the sake of it. But there has to be accountability here, and the Lillestrøm numbers demand it.

Real Sociedad put six past them. Six goals, no reply. Lillestrøm lost 0-6. Viktoria Plzeň beat them 1-0. Torreense beat them 2-1. Their only win in five Europa League matches came against Egnatia Rrogozhinë, 2-1. Their only draw was 1-1 against Sparta Praha, and Sparta will not have been thrilled with that either.

Eleven goals against. Zero clean sheets. A goals against column that reads like a team has stopped caring about the basics of defending. You cannot travel to Sofia with that record and expect anything on the basis of attitude alone. Attitude has to show up in the results, and right now it is not showing up.

The Bet

I back conviction, not confusion. And the conviction here points in one direction.

Levski Sofia to win. At home, in form, against a side that has not kept a single clean sheet in this competition. The case for a Levski clean sheet is real too, given Lillestrøm have scored just four goals in five Europa League matches. That is not a threat you lose sleep over.

Levski win and clean sheet. That is my selection. I am not dressing it up with alternatives. End of.

The Verdict

Levski Sofia are not perfect. No side in this competition is. But they have shown desire, they have shown standards, and they are playing at home against a team that is shipping goals at a rate that suggests something has gone badly wrong.

Lillestrøm need a performance that bears no resemblance to recent evidence. Levski need to do what they have been doing. The thing is, in football, you usually back the side that has been doing the right things. That is Levski Sofia on Thursday night.