Can Chicago Fire Finally Win One? New York City Arrive With Their Own Problems

Saturday. 19:30 UK time. Soldier Field. Two teams who cannot finish what they start, one match that probably ends exactly the way you think it will. Welcome to Chicago Fire versus New York City.

The State of Chicago Fire

Listen, four draws in a row is not a run of form. It is a habit. And bad habits are hard to break.

Chicago Fire have drawn their last four MLS matches, against Inter Miami, Toronto, Seattle Sounders, and New York Red Bulls. One win in five. Zero clean sheets across all five of those matches. The thing is, they are scoring. Ten goals in those five games. But they cannot hold a lead. They cannot organise themselves at the back for ninety minutes. Both teams have scored in every single one of those five matches. Every one.

Go back ten matches and the picture is slightly better but not convincing. Four wins, four draws, two losses across that sample. But that clean sheet percentage across ten games is still zero. Not one shutout. Not one match where the defence did its basic job from start to finish. That is not a tactical problem. That is an attitude problem at the back. End of.

The Toronto game is the one that sticks with me. Chicago Fire drew four goals apiece with Toronto. Four-four. At some point someone has to put their hand up and say that is unacceptable. You cannot concede four goals at home, or away, and call it a point well earned. You cannot. That is a collapse of standards.

The State of New York City

New York City are in no position to be smug about any of this.

Five matches without a win. Two losses, three draws. Four goals scored across those five games. They have picked up one clean sheet in that run, a goalless draw with Nashville SC. That is the only match in five where their defence held firm. One. You take comfort where you can find it, I suppose.

Broaden it out to ten matches and New York City have won twice, drawn four, and lost four. Their goals against across ten games is fourteen. They are leaking. They are not competing consistently enough. There is a softness there that concerns me.

The loss to New England is the one I keep coming back to. New York City lost one-two to New England. New England. That result tells you something about the mentality in this squad right now. When the going gets difficult, they are not finding a way through. They are going under.

Head to Head

There is only one previous meeting in the data and it matters. New York City went to Chicago in July and won three goals to one. New York City controlled that fixture. Chicago Fire were second best on the day and it showed on the scoreboard. Historically, that is the only reference point we have between these two sides, and it points one way.

Both teams scored that day. Goals at both ends. Four goals in total. If you are looking for a pattern, that is the only one available, and it lines up perfectly with what both teams have been doing ever since.

The Bet

I do not do accumulators. Never have, never will. One selection. One conviction.

The thing is, when you look at what both teams are actually doing on a football pitch right now, the answer is obvious. Both teams score. Neither team keeps clean sheets. Chicago Fire have had both teams score in ten out of ten of their recent matches. New York City have had both teams score in nine out of ten of theirs.

Both teams to score. That is the play. I do not need a laptop to tell me that. I watched the evidence with my own two eyes and it is sitting right there in the data. Back it with conviction and move on.

I would also not be shocked by a draw. Chicago Fire draw everything at the moment. New York City draw everything at the moment. Two teams who cannot win, who cannot defend, meeting each other. The draw is lurking. But both teams to score is the line I am willing to commit to regardless of the result.

What Needs to Change

For Chicago Fire, the answer is simple. Stop conceding soft goals. Win a header. Track your runner. Do the basics. Four draws in a row at home tells me nobody is demanding enough from the players around them. Where is the leadership? Where is the accountability? One win in five is not acceptable for a team with ambitions in this league.

For New York City, the recent win at Chicago Fire in July feels like a long time ago now. That version of the team competed. This version is drawing with Nashville at nil-nil and losing to New England. That is a slide. The desire that produced a three-one away win has gone somewhere. They need to find it quickly.

Verdict

This is a match between two teams low on confidence and high on goals conceded. Chicago Fire's home record offers them something but their inability to keep a clean sheet in any of their last ten matches is a serious problem. New York City won here in July and that counts for something. But they have not won since.

Expect goals. Expect both teams to score. Expect a match that is tighter than it looks on paper but never actually comfortable for either side. A draw would surprise nobody. A New York City win would not shock me either given the head to head. A Chicago Fire clean sheet would absolutely floor me.

Both teams to score. Back it. Move on.