Montréal's Defensive Shambles Invites Cincinnati to Come and Take Three Points

This one is not complicated. CF Montréal have a defensive record that would embarrass a Sunday league side, and Cincinnati are a team that scores goals. You do not need much more than that. But let us go through it properly, because the numbers are damning and the evidence is right there in front of you.

Montréal: A Defensive Crisis in Plain Sight

Across their last five MLS matches, Montréal have conceded 13 goals and kept zero clean sheets. Zero. Their most recent home outing ended in a 1-7 defeat to Inter Miami. That is not a slip. That is a collapse in standards. That is a group of players who are not competing at the most basic level required.

The thing is, it is not just the heavy defeat that concerns me. Look at the wider picture. Across ten completed matches, Montréal have one win, five draws, and four losses. They have let in 21 goals. Both teams have scored in six of those ten matches. Every single one of their last five matches has seen both teams score. Every one. Clean sheet probability here is close to zero, and I do not say that lightly.

They do have four players out injured, including one with a long-term injury and another with a major injury. I am not making excuses for them. You field who you field and you compete. But it does compound an already fragile situation. There is no cavalry coming. What you see is what you get, and what you see is a side that cannot keep the ball out of their net.

Their only win in the last ten came against Columbus Crew, a 2-1 result. That is a solitary bright spot in a run that also included a 4-4 draw with DC United. A four-all draw. At some point accountability has to land somewhere. Right now, Montréal look like a side that has accepted mid-table mediocrity as a reasonable outcome. That attitude is unacceptable at any level.

Cincinnati: Goals in the Blood, Questions at the Back

Listen, Cincinnati are not a clean sheet machine either. Across ten completed MLS matches they have kept zero clean sheets. Both teams have scored in nine of those ten. They are a side that gives up goals. But they also score them, and they score them regularly.

Their last five matches show two wins, two draws, and one loss. The one loss was a 0-4 hammering by Nashville SC, which I noted and will not ignore. But the wins are convincing. Cincinnati beat SJ Earthquakes 4-2 and beat New York City 2-1. Across ten matches they have scored 25 goals. Twenty-five. That is a side with genuine attacking desire and the ability to put the ball in the net when it matters.

The concern is the conceding. They have shipped 24 goals in those same ten matches. So this is not a defensively solid outfit. It is an open, attacking side that tends to generate chaotic, high-scoring affairs. Given what Montréal's defence looks like right now, that suits Cincinnati perfectly.

Head to Head: One Meeting, Seven Goals

There is only one previous meeting on record between these two sides in this competition. Cincinnati won it. The scoreline was 4-3 to Cincinnati. Seven goals in one game. Both teams scored. Over 2.5 goals. Everything you needed to know about what these two sides produce when they play each other was right there in that single match. I trust the evidence in front of me.

The Verdict

The thing is, you have a Montréal side that cannot defend, playing at home against a Cincinnati side that can absolutely score. Montréal's home form over the last five matches is one win, three draws, one loss. The draw is their most common result in that short run, but with Inter Miami already ripping them apart 7-1, you have to ask how much defensive resilience is actually left in this group.

Cincinnati have more quality in the attacking third. They have shown they can win matches when they compete. They beat a decent New York City side and dismantled SJ Earthquakes. They have the attitude and the standards to get the job done against a side that is currently in freefall defensively.

I am backing Cincinnati to win this match. They have the desire, they have the goals in them, and they are facing a Montréal defence that is conceding at a rate that should embarrass everyone associated with the club. This is a results business. Montréal are not delivering results. Cincinnati, more often than not recently, are.

Both teams to score is as close to a certainty as you will find in football, given that Cincinnati have kept zero clean sheets in ten and Montréal have kept zero in five. If you are looking for goals, this fixture has them written all over it. The head to head backs it up. The form backs it up. The injury list at Montréal backs it up.

Back Cincinnati. Back goals. End of.