Brentford vs Everton: Can the Bees Finally Lock It Down at the Back?

Monday night football at the Gtech Community Stadium. Brentford host Everton in the Premier League, and the thing is, neither of these sides is in a position to be generous. Yet based on recent evidence, goals are coming.

Brentford: Drawing Matches They Should Be Winning

Listen, three draws in five Premier League matches is not a form guide that fills you with confidence. Brentford have picked up one win and one loss alongside those three draws, scoring nine and conceding seven in the process. Their only clean sheet in five matches came in a 3-0 win over Chelsea in September. That was a statement result. What followed was not.

Draws against Bournemouth and Sunderland, then another against Aston Villa, a 2-2 where Brentford gave up the lead. They have the goals in them. The basics at the back are letting them down. Both teams have scored in four of Brentford's last five Premier League home matches. That is a clean sheet problem. That is an accountability problem. End of.

There are also injury concerns in the squad. Brentford have at least one moderate injury absence and one minor injury that was due back in mid-October, plus two suspensions that were expected to clear up before this fixture. Whether any of those absences affect the starting eleven on Monday will matter. A depleted defensive unit, given the standards they have been showing, is not something the manager can afford to ignore.

Everton: Arriving on the Back of Two Straight Losses

Everton are not in good shape. They have won one, drawn two, and lost two in their last five Premier League matches. More worrying is the direction of travel. Everton lost to Chelsea 0-2 in their second most recent match, then lost to Arsenal 0-2 in their most recent match. Back to back defeats without scoring a single goal. That is not a team brimming with desire right now.

The thing is, Everton have actually kept clean sheets in two of their last five matches. They held Tottenham Hotspur to a 0-0 draw and beat Ipswich 1-0. So there is a defensive shape there when the attitude is right. But they have scored just three goals in five matches. You cannot build anything on that output. You cannot compete at the top end of the table scoring at that rate. Their one bright result was that 1-0 win over Ipswich, and they have not looked close to that level since.

Head to Head: Goals Every Time

The two sides have met twice in this competition before this fixture. Brentford have won one and drawn one, with both teams scoring in both matches. The average across those two meetings is five goals per game. Neither side has kept a clean sheet in those head to head encounters. If you are hoping for a tight, cagey affair on Monday, the evidence is not on your side.

The Verdict

Brentford at home, against a side that has not scored in two matches, should be winning this. Their desire to attack is clear. The problem is their standards at the back. Everton will sit in, they will make it difficult, but they do not have the firepower right now to punish Brentford on the counter consistently.

The head to head backs goals. Brentford's home form backs goals. Everton's inability to keep things tight when they go behind backs goals. Both teams to score has landed in eighty percent of Brentford's last five home matches. That number does not lie. My selection is both teams to score. Brentford to win, but it will not be clean. It never is with this lot.