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Jay Thompson · 23 July 2026
Last updated 30 July 2026. Right, we are two days out from this one and things are starting to take shape. St. Johnstone vs Kilmarnock, Sunday 2 August, 1pm kick-off. Scottish Premiership football is back, mate. Genuinely one of the most underrated leagues for a weekend punt and we are straight into a tasty one.
Look, I have to be upfront with you. We have got a decent chunk of data on Kilmarnock going into this but St. Johnstone's form data has not come through on my end. So we are working a bit one-sided here. But honestly? Sometimes that tells you plenty on its own. The model has gone big on St. Johnstone regardless, and we will get into that.
What I can tell you is that Kilmarnock have been absolutely flying. Four wins from their last five overall, with 13 goals scored and only three conceded in that run. WWWWL. That is not bad vibes, that is a team hitting the ground running. The one loss is there, sure, but the overall picture is of a side in genuinely good nick heading into the new season.
Right, let me break this down because it is worth your time. Over the last ten games overall, Killie have gone W6 D2 L2. Twenty goals scored, ten conceded. That is a 2-1 average scoreline in their favour, which is proper good going. Their away form over the last five is a bit more mixed, mind. Two wins, one draw, two losses on the road, with nine goals for and seven against. So they can be got at away from home.
Here is the bit that I actually looked at the numbers for once and found interesting. Their over 2.5 goals percentage in the last five games sits at 80 percent. Eight in every ten of their recent matches have had three or more goals. Whether you are a xG merchant, and I know what xG stands for I just think it sounds like a rejected Marvel villain, or whether you just watch the games, that number jumps off the page. Goals are coming when Killie are involved.
Their home form is actually even more impressive. Unbeaten in their last ten at home. Five wins and three draws. Sixty-two and a half percent clean sheet rate at home over that run too. But wait, they are the away side on Sunday. And away from home they have kept a clean sheet in only 20 percent of their last five. So there is a gap there worth noting.
One injury flag for Kilmarnock. There is a player on a long-term injury, listed as out with no expected return date. Has been out since July last year. So whoever that is, they will not be featuring on Sunday. Squad depth could matter as the season builds up but for this game, the main names should all be available.
So here is the thing. Despite having no form data for St. Johnstone on my sheet, the model has still gone 56.6 percent on a Saints home win. That is a proper edge. The market on Paddy Power has St. Johnstone at 2.25 to win, which implies only a 44.4 percent chance. Our model says 56.6 percent. That is a 12 percent edge, which in betting terms is genuinely significant. You do not see gaps like that very often on a market this liquid.
Look at the odds more broadly. Bet365 have St. Johnstone at 2.20 in the head to head market. The draw is 3.40. Kilmarnock are 3.20. So this is pretty open according to the bookies, but the model disagrees and thinks the home side are being underestimated.
Why might that be? Home advantage in Scottish football is real. McDiarmid Park is not Hampden but St. Johnstone consistently make it a difficult place to go. And the draw no bet market has them at 1.57, meaning even with insurance on the draw you are getting a return. That tells you there is genuine value baked into the Saints side of this game.
Honestly this is where it gets interesting. The model gives over 2.5 goals a 53 percent chance. The market implies 55.6 percent at odds of 1.80. So the model actually thinks the market has this one about right, maybe even slightly overpriced. The edge is slightly negative on over 2.5 according to our signal, which means I am not going mad for it even though Killie's last five games have had loads of goals.
BTTS is a funny one here too. The signal on BTTS No is at 2.20, and the model gives it a 49.8 percent chance versus the market's implied 45.5 percent. There is a small edge there. Kilmarnock have only scored in both halves of games in 40 percent of recent matches overall. Their away clean sheet record is poor but that does not automatically mean St. Johnstone always score. Without home form data for Saints I am being cautious on this market.
I'm going big on this. St. Johnstone to win at 2.25 with Paddy Power. The model edge is 12 percent, which is the kind of number that makes you sit up straight. Yes, Kilmarnock are in form. Yes, they have goals in them. But the model consistently has Saints at over 56 percent to win this game and the market is way off that. You heard it here first. Saints win on Sunday.
At 2.20 there is a small edge on BTTS No. Killie's away clean sheet record is poor but St. Johnstone may not need to concede to win this. If Saints go one up and shut up shop, which Scottish Premiership sides are very capable of doing, BTTS No lands. Small play only. Trust the process. Or don't, I'm not your financial advisor.
For anyone building a Saturday, sorry, Sunday Special, St. Johnstone to win is the leg to include. At 2.25 it gives your acca a proper boost. Stick it in alongside two or three other confident legs and you have got a decent little Sunday afternoon sweat. Don't @ me if it goes wrong. I will own it on Monday morning as usual.
Look, this is a game where the vibes say Kilmarnock. Their form is good, they score goals, and they have momentum. But football is not always about vibes, mate. Sometimes the numbers point somewhere and you back them. The model says St. Johnstone, the edge is real, and I am going with it. Scottish Premiership Day One. Scenes incoming. Get involved.
