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Liga Portugal · MW8Ref: Carlos André Fernandes Macedo
Full time

This match had live commentary and in-play prices; no stats or momentum.

Rio Ave 3-2 Nacional result, stats and report

Rio Ave
Won · xG 1.67
3 – 2
FT 01:45
Lost · xG 1.40
Nacional
The Match Review, as soon as it publishes.
Next: Academico Viseu v Rio Ave · Sun 1 Nov · Arouca v Nacional · Sun 1 Nov
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Forecast audit · prediction, not a Tip

How the forecast compared

Rio AveNacionalLiga Portugal

The provider forecast gives Rio Ave win the highest 1X2 probability at 38.7%. No SportSignals Tip was published, so there is no Tip to settle.

RIO
38.7%
Draw
27.7%
NAC
33.6%
Both teams to score · Yes
53.0%
Over 2.5 goals
47.9%

Full-time forecast audit: Rio Ave win was the highest probability; the match result was Rio Ave win.

Forecast result checked ·

Evidence and authority

Provider forecast
Our data provider supplies the underlying fixture probabilities.
SportSignals transformation
We validate, normalise and label the provider percentages for display.
Market consensus
Not included here. Current regional prices are a separate Odds-section record.
Tip and Plus value
A qualified Tip is a separate publication decision. Plus value separately compares a probability with an eligible price.
Provider market settlement record
MarketResult
Both teams to scorewon
Half-time / full-timelost
Half-time resultwon
Over 1.5 goalswon
Over 2.5 goalslost
Over 3.5 goalslost
Full-time resultwon
Double chancewon
Correct scorelost
Both teams to score in both halveslost

Provider probabilities come from the immutable pre-kickoff snapshot. Settlement fields are a separate post-match record and cannot rewrite the frozen forecast.

Match Probabilities

Full-Time Result

39%
28%
34%
38.7%RIO
27.7%Draw
33.6%NAC

Both Teams to Score

53%
Yes 53.0%No 47.0%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

48%
Yes 47.9%No 52.1%

Goals Markets

Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
26%

Most Likely Correct Scores

1-1
12.5%
1-0
9.8%
0-1
9.1%
2-1
8.5%
0-0
8.3%
1-2
7.9%

More markets

On the double chance our model rates RIO or draw at 48.0%; the most likely half-time state is a half-time draw at 43.2%; both teams scoring in both halves is priced at 4.8%.

Double Chance

1X
48.0%
12
8.3%
X2
43.8%

Half-Time Result

RIO
27.3%
Draw
43.2%
NAC
29.6%

Half-Time / Full-Time

HT \ FT
RIO
Draw
NAC
RIO
21.0%
5.5%
2.7%
Draw
12.8%
17.3%
12.5%
NAC
2.8%
5.3%
20.0%

BTTS in Both Halves

Yes
4.8%
No
95.2%

Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.