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Jay Thompson · 9 August 2026
Right, let's talk about this one. Lommel SK vs Sporting Charleroi. Sunday evening in Belgium, 18:15 kick-off UK time, and honestly... I reckon this is a game worth paying attention to. Not because it's the most glamorous fixture you'll ever see. But because the data is telling a story here, and I'm not ignoring it.
Look, Lommel are sitting sixth in the early Belgian Pro League standings after just one game played. One draw, one point. They went away from home and came back with a 1-1. Fine start. Not embarrassing. But here's the thing that jumps out at me. They are playing their first home game of the season on Sunday. No home record to speak of yet. No crowd momentum built up. And the away draw they got last week? Their only result across the last five and last ten games in the data. One game. That's basically all we have on them this season.
What I will say is this. Look at the numbers from that opening game and Lommel's xG, that thing Marcus keeps banging on about and honestly it's just expected goals, it tells you how many goals you probably should have scored based on the chances you created, and Lommel's number was 1.6 while they conceded chances worth 3.1. So they rode a bit of luck to get that draw. They scored once from situations that probably should have produced three goals against them. That is not exactly a ringing endorsement going into a home debut.
Now here is where it gets interesting. Sporting Charleroi's away record over their last five games reads W-W-W-D-L. Three wins, a draw, and one defeat. Six goals scored, three conceded. A clean sheet percentage of 60 per cent on the road. Sixty! Away from home! That is not a team that rocks up and hopes for the best. That is a side that travels well and knows how to pick up points.
Their momentum slope away from home is sitting at 0.8. I actually looked at the numbers for once and mate, that is a high number. It basically means they are trending upward when they play away. They are not peaking at home and struggling on the road. It is the opposite. They are genuinely better away than at home based on recent evidence.
Look at their home form over the last ten games and suddenly the picture changes a bit. At home they have won two, drawn four, and lost three. Conceded ten goals at home. That wobbliness at their own ground explains why they have a negative momentum slope of 0.4 in home games. So yes, there is a version of Charleroi that you can get at. But Lommel are not playing them at home on Sunday. They are the home side. And Charleroi away is a different animal entirely.
Here is where I have to be honest with you. The goals data for this fixture is a bit tricky to read. Lommel's only game this season ended 1-1 and their BTTS percentage is 100. That is based on one game so do not get too carried away with it. But it does mean both teams have scored in every Lommel match we have data on this campaign.
Charleroi away over five games? Their BTTS percentage drops to just 20. They have kept three clean sheets in those five away matches. So if you are thinking goals from both ends, the away form of Charleroi actually argues against it. They travel, they defend well, they nick goals. Over and under 2.5 goals for Charleroi away is sitting at zero per cent for over 2.5 in their last five away games. Zero. Not a single away game in their last five has produced three or more goals.
There is also no head to head data available here so we cannot lean on that. Fresh page between these two as far as our numbers are concerned.
Right, so here is my read. Lommel are at home for the first time this season. There will be excitement. There will be a crowd wanting to see their team perform. But they are a side that, in their one outing, created fewer chances than they conceded and got away with a draw. They are hosting a Charleroi team that has been excellent on the road, defends well away from home, and carries a positive momentum trend when they travel.
Charleroi are sitting ninth in the 2026 standings with zero points so far, which tells me they have not played yet in the current campaign at this level. All that form data is from their previous season and recent competitive games. They come into this one with no league result yet but carrying excellent away form from their recent history. There is no pressure on them from a table perspective yet. That can be freeing for a team.
Lommel need to prove themselves at home. That expectation can work against you sometimes, especially against a well-drilled travelling side.
I'm going big on this. Sporting Charleroi to win or draw away from home. Look at the fixtures, look at the form, look at the way they defend on the road. Charleroi to avoid defeat here is the sensible angle. If you want a bit more spice, Charleroi to win is not out of the question at all given how that away form reads.
For the acca lovers, Charleroi clean sheet away is also worth a sniff given that 60 per cent clean sheet rate on the road. Don't @ me if Lommel bang three in, but you heard it here first: Charleroi are the value pick in this one.
Back to the drawing board if it goes wrong. It usually does. But this one genuinely makes sense to me. Sunday evening, Belgium, get involved.
Correct means the selection settled as won on the 90-minute result. Every selection counted here was recorded before kickoff. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
