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Scottish Premiership · MW7Ref: Duncan Nicolson
Full time

This match had live commentary and in-play prices; no stats or momentum.

Kilmarnock 1-1 Hearts result, stats and report

Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock
Drew · xG 0.42
1 – 1
FT 07:35
Hearts
Drew · xG 1.92
Hearts
Match review
Next: Falkirk v Kilmarnock · Sat 24 Oct · Motherwell v Hearts · Sun 25 Oct
Skip match sections

Who won Kilmarnock vs Hearts?

Kilmarnock 1-1 Hearts, full time in the Scottish Premiership. Played UK time. Our model's pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals, which landed. Before this meeting the sides had met 2 times in the fixtures we hold, with Kilmarnock winning 1, Hearts winning 0 and 1 drawn.

How it played out

Level at 1–1 when it finished

KILHEA

No minute-by-minute record was captured for this match, so the shape of it is not drawn.

Verified final · revision 3 · 07:35Full stats
Match StoryFull breakdown

Kilmarnock 1–1 Hearts

Hearts looked set to drop points at Rugby Park after Jamie McCart's own goal put Kilmarnock ahead, but Stephen Kingsley struck four minutes from time to earn a share of the spoils. It was a result that flattered neither side.

Scottish PremiershipSat 19 Sept, 17:45
Key Takeaways
Result

Kilmarnock and Hearts drew 1-1.

Goals

Two goals kept the match under the 2.5 line.

First Goal
S
86'⚽
Stephen Kingsley
Game Flow

Expected Goals (xG)

Kilmarnock 0.42 xGHearts 1.92 xG
Cumulative · approximated from goal events
0'45'90'

SportSignals model forecast

Recorded before kick-off · prediction, not a Tip

Hearts to win

47%Missed

Result

Kilmarnock1:1Hearts

KIL v HEA

Our model leaned Hearts to win at 47%. Kilmarnock 1-1 Hearts. Forecast did not match the result.
📊 Match recap and data context

Kilmarnock drew 1-1 with Hearts in the Scottish Premiership. Our model backed Hearts to win at 47 percent probability; the pick missed. Jamie McCart's own goal put Kilmarnock ahead in the 16th minute, but Stephen Kingsley levelled for Hearts in the 86th. Both teams found the net, extending Hearts' recent pattern of both-teams-scoring across their last five matches. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

SportSignals uses automated analysis with editorial oversight. Check current team news and market prices before relying on this context.

Kilmarnock v Hearts · Scottish Premiership ·

Player ratings

Who decided it

All 22
  1. Stephen KingsleyHEA★ MOTM1 goal · 90 min8.2
  2. Christian BorchgrevinkHEA90 min7.5
  3. Sabah KerjotaHEA21 min7.2
  4. Harry MilneHEA58 min7.1
  5. Jamie McCartHEA90 min7.0

Forecast audit · prediction, not a Tip

How the forecast compared

KilmarnockHeartsScottish Premiership

The provider forecast gives Hearts win the highest 1X2 probability at 47.3%. No SportSignals Tip was published, so there is no Tip to settle.

KIL
27.5%
Draw
25.2%
HEA
47.3%
Both teams to score · Yes
58.7%
Over 2.5 goals
56.8%

Full-time forecast audit: Hearts win was the highest probability; the match result was draw.

Forecast result checked ·

Tips record

No Tip was published for this match

No selection qualified before kickoff, so there is no paid Tip to settle. The original model prediction and observed prices remain separate audit records.

Final pre-match decision · no Tip to settle

Current alternative Tips will be checked as this section comes into view
Match facts · what the record shows

Pre-match facts retained

The historical evidence saved at kick-off, kept separate from what happened in the match.

Head-to-head evidence

Pre-match historical evidence

  • 0-1is the most common scoreline between Kilmarnock and Hearts, landing 6 times across 27 league meetings on record.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • 11/27recorded league meetings saw both teams score (40.7%).Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Kilmarnock scored first in 4 of their last 10 league matches (40%).Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Hearts scored first in 6 of their last 10 league matches (60%).Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Kilmarnock have averaged 1.8 goals per match over their last 10 league matches.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Hearts have averaged 2.0 goals per match over their last 10 league matches.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Joe Hugill has the highest listed average xGOT for Kilmarnock at 0.58 across the provider's evidence window.Immutable kick-off snapshot
  • Laurent Mendy has the highest listed average xGOT for Hearts at 0.77 across the provider's evidence window.Immutable kick-off snapshot

Immutable kick-off snapshot · Source: match facts feed. Evidence sets are labelled separately and never rebuilt from mutable post-match rows.

Questions about this result

  • What was the final score in Kilmarnock vs Hearts?
    KIL and HEA drew 1-1 in the Scottish Premiership.
  • Who scored the opening goal?
    Jamie McCart opened the scoring in the 16th minute.
  • Who scored in the match?
    Jamie McCart (16', og), Stephen Kingsley (86').
  • How many bookings were there?
    The referee showed 4 yellow cards.
  • Who refereed the match?
    Duncan Nicolson officiated.
  • When and where was the match played?
    KIL vs HEA kicked off on Saturday, 19 September 2026 UK time.
  • How many corners were there in the match?
    8 corners were taken across the 90 minutes.
  • Did the model call it right?
    Yes. The published pick was Under 2.5 goals, and it landed.
  • When do they play next?
    KIL play Falkirk on Saturday, 24 October 2026 UK time. HEA play Motherwell on Sunday, 25 October 2026 UK time.

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.