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Eredivisie · MW5 Abe Lenstra Stadion, HeerenveenRef: Jeroen Manschot
Full time

This match had live commentary and in-play prices; no stats or momentum.

SC Heerenveen 2-3 AZ Alkmaar result, stats and report

SC Heerenveen
Lost · xG 0.55
2 – 3
FT 07:55
Won · xG 0.88
AZ Alkmaar
Next: ADO Den Haag v SC Heerenveen · Sat 24 Oct · Ararat-Armenia v AZ Alkmaar · Thu 22 Oct
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Forecast audit · prediction, not a Tip

How the forecast compared

SC HeerenveenAZ AlkmaarEredivisie

The provider forecast gives AZ Alkmaar win the highest 1X2 probability at 47.7%. No SportSignals Tip was published, so there is no Tip to settle.

SC Heerenveen
30.4%
Draw
21.9%
AZ Alkmaar
47.7%
Both teams to score · Yes
64.4%
Over 2.5 goals
65.5%

Full-time forecast audit: AZ Alkmaar win was the highest probability; the match result was AZ Alkmaar win.

Forecast result checked ·

Evidence and authority

Provider forecast
Our data provider supplies the underlying fixture probabilities.
SportSignals transformation
We validate, normalise and label the provider percentages for display.
Market consensus
Not included here. Current regional prices are a separate Odds-section record.
Tip and Plus value
A qualified Tip is a separate publication decision. Plus value separately compares a probability with an eligible price.
Provider market settlement record
MarketResult
Both teams to scorewon
Half-time / full-timelost
Half-time resultlost
Over 1.5 goalswon
Over 2.5 goalswon
Over 3.5 goalslost
Full-time resultwon
Double chancewon
Correct scorelost
Both teams to score in both halveslost

Provider probabilities come from the immutable pre-kickoff snapshot. Settlement fields are a separate post-match record and cannot rewrite the frozen forecast.

Match Probabilities

Full-Time Result

30%
22%
48%
30.4%SC Heerenveen
21.9%Draw
47.7%AZ Alkmaar

Both Teams to Score

64%
Yes 64.4%No 35.6%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

66%
Yes 65.5%No 34.5%

Goals Markets

Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
43%

Most Likely Correct Scores

1-1
9.2%
1-2
9.2%
2-1
7.3%
0-1
6.8%
2-2
6.7%
0-2
6.2%

More markets

On the double chance our model rates AZ Alkmaar or draw at 56.3%; the most likely half-time state is AZ Alkmaar leading at half-time at 38.7%; both teams scoring in both halves is priced at 6.3%.

Double Chance

1X
40.1%
12
3.6%
X2
56.3%

Half-Time Result

SC Heerenveen
25.9%
Draw
35.4%
AZ Alkmaar
38.7%

Half-Time / Full-Time

HT \ FT
SC Heerenveen
Draw
AZ Alkmaar
SC Heerenveen
17.4%
4.8%
4.3%
Draw
10.9%
12.0%
13.2%
AZ Alkmaar
2.2%
5.3%
29.9%

BTTS in Both Halves

Yes
6.3%
No
93.7%

Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.