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EFL Championship · Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 12:30 KO Pride Park Stadium, Derby

Derby vs Birmingham prediction, odds and how to watch

Kickoff
12 Sept
Derby 31%Draw 27%Birmingham 42%
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Provider prediction · not a Tip

Match intelligence

DerbyBirminghamEFL Championship

The provider forecast gives Birmingham win the highest 1X2 probability at 41.7%. The Tip publication window remains open; no Tip is recorded yet, so no no-Tip decision is inferred.

Derby
30.9%
Draw
27.4%
Birmingham
41.7%
Both teams to score · Yes
51.9%
Over 2.5 goals
47.9%

Provider forecast checked ·

Evidence and authority

Provider forecast
Our data provider supplies the underlying fixture probabilities.
SportSignals transformation
We validate, normalise and label the provider percentages for display.
Market consensus
Not included here. Current regional prices are a separate Odds-section record.
Tip and Plus Edge
A qualified Tip is a separate publication decision. Edge separately compares a probability with an eligible price.

Match Probabilities

Full-Time Result

31%
27%
42%
30.9%Derby
27.4%Draw
41.7%Birmingham

Both Teams to Score

52%
Yes 51.9%No 48.1%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

48%
Yes 47.9%No 52.1%

Goals Markets

Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
26%

Most Likely Correct Scores

1-1
12.4%
0-1
10.6%
1-2
8.7%
1-0
8.5%
0-0
8.4%
0-2
7.3%

More markets

On the double chance our model rates Birmingham or draw at 51.0%; the most likely half-time state is a half-time draw at 44.9%; both teams scoring in both halves is priced at 3.4%.

Double Chance

1X
40.6%
12
8.4%
X2
51.0%

Half-Time Result

Derby
23.2%
Draw
44.9%
Birmingham
31.9%

Half-Time / Full-Time

HT \ FT
Derby
Draw
Birmingham
Derby
15.7%
5.2%
2.6%
Draw
11.0%
19.3%
14.5%
Birmingham
2.0%
5.7%
24.0%

BTTS in Both Halves

Yes
3.4%
No
96.6%

Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.