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Liga Portugal · MW4Ref: Gustavo Fernandes Correia
Full time

This match had live commentary and in-play prices; no stats or momentum.

Arouca 2-1 Marítimo result, stats and report

Arouca
Won · xG 1.25
2 – 1
FT
Lost · xG 0.66
Marítimo
The Match Review, as soon as it publishes.
Next: Alverca v Arouca · Sat 24 Oct · Vitória Guimarães v Marítimo · Fri 23 Oct
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Forecast audit · prediction, not a Tip

How the forecast compared

AroucaMarítimoLiga Portugal

The provider forecast gives Arouca win the highest 1X2 probability at 40.3%. No SportSignals Tip was published, so there is no Tip to settle.

ARO
40.3%
Draw
27.0%
CSM
32.6%
Both teams to score · Yes
55.9%
Over 2.5 goals
51.6%

Forecast result checked ·

Evidence and authority

Provider forecast
Our data provider supplies the underlying fixture probabilities.
SportSignals transformation
We validate, normalise and label the provider percentages for display.
Market consensus
Not included here. Current regional prices are a separate Odds-section record.
Tip and Plus value
A qualified Tip is a separate publication decision. Plus value separately compares a probability with an eligible price.
Provider market settlement record
MarketResult
Both teams to scorewon
Half-time / full-timelost
Half-time resultwon
Over 1.5 goalswon
Over 2.5 goalswon
Over 3.5 goalswon
Full-time resultwon
Double chancewon
Correct scorelost
Both teams to score in both halveswon

Provider probabilities come from the immutable pre-kickoff snapshot. Settlement fields are a separate post-match record and cannot rewrite the frozen forecast.

Match Probabilities

Full-Time Result

40%
27%
33%
40.3%ARO
27.0%Draw
32.6%CSM

Both Teams to Score

56%
Yes 55.9%No 44.1%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

52%
Yes 51.6%No 48.4%

Goals Markets

Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
30%

Most Likely Correct Scores

1-1
12.5%
1-0
9.2%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
8.2%
1-2
7.9%
0-0
7.4%

More markets

On the double chance our model rates ARO or draw at 47.9%; the most likely half-time state is a half-time draw at 46.4%; both teams scoring in both halves is priced at 6.2%.

Double Chance

1X
47.9%
12
7.4%
X2
44.7%

Half-Time Result

ARO
27.7%
Draw
46.4%
CSM
25.9%

Half-Time / Full-Time

HT \ FT
ARO
Draw
CSM
ARO
19.8%
5.7%
3.1%
Draw
13.9%
19.2%
12.9%
CSM
2.9%
5.0%
17.5%

BTTS in Both Halves

Yes
6.2%
No
93.8%

Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.