Aalesund vs Start pre-match centre

Right, let's talk about this one. Friday night football in Norway. Aalesund vs Start. Two sides sitting in the bottom third of the Eliteserien table, both leaking goals like a broken tap, both desperately in need of three points. If you like a quiet, cagey, nil-nil... look away now, mate.

Where They Both Stand

Aalesund are 15th in the 2026 Eliteserien standings. Fifteen. They have two wins from 17 games, nine draws, and six defeats. Their goal difference is minus 14, having shipped 41 goals and scored 27. That is an extraordinary amount of goals going in both directions at a club that appears to have decided defending is optional.

Start are even worse off. Bottom of the table, 16th, with just two wins and four draws from 17 games. They have conceded 38 goals and scored only 16. Their goal difference of minus 22 tells you everything you need to know about what kind of season they are having. This is a side in serious trouble.

So we have 15th hosting 16th. Relegation six-pointer territory. The kind of game that means absolutely everything to both sets of supporters.

Aalesund's Home Form: The Draw Merchants of Norway

Look at the fixtures and what jumps out immediately is just how often Aalesund draw. Their last five home games read: D, L, D, D, D. They have not won a single home game in their last five on their own patch. One win from their last ten at home overall, with six draws and three defeats.

And the goals... honestly, it is madness. In their last ten home games they have scored 20 and conceded 26. Their BTTS rate at home over the last ten? One hundred per cent. Every single game. Both teams have scored in every home match Aalesund have played in that run. Clean sheet percentage? Zero. Not one clean sheet.

Their recent overall form reads DDLDL, so no wins in the last five matches across all games. There is a slight positive momentum slope creeping in on that overall last-five data, but let's not get too excited. A momentum slope improving when you have not won is a bit like saying the Titanic was picking up speed.

Start's Away Form: Four Losses on the Spin

Start travel to Aalesund in absolutely wretched away form. Their last five away games: W, L, L, L, L. One win, four defeats, seven goals scored and sixteen conceded on the road. They are shipping goals at a horrifying rate when away from home.

Over the last ten games overall Start have managed just two wins, one draw, and seven defeats. Their season record of 2 wins, 4 draws, 11 defeats is the worst in the division. They are bottom for a reason.

There is one injury flagged in the data for Start, a long-term absentee who has been out since May 2025 with no expected return date. That kind of sustained absence from a squad this thin can only hurt.

Interestingly, Start's away over 2.5 goals rate in their last five away games is 100 per cent. Every away game has produced more than two and a half goals. Combined with Aalesund's home BTTS rate of 100 per cent, we are looking at a fixture that screams goals from every angle.

The Tactical Bit (Stay With Me)

Aalesund average 44.5 per cent possession at home over the last ten, so they are not dominating the ball. They get about 13 shots per game and seven on target. That is a reasonable amount of threat but their conversion of those chances into clean sheets is, as we have covered, non-existent.

I actually looked at the numbers for once and spotted something interesting. Aalesund's xG at home over the last ten is 10 for and 12 against. Now I know what xG is, it is that thing where nerds tell you that your team deserved to win because of some maths. But even the maths is saying Aalesund are being outperformed at home. They are creating decent enough chances but conceding more than they should. Start, for their part, have an xG of 16.8 for and 22.2 against across the season. They are a team who probably feel like they should have a few more goals, but the defensive numbers do not lie.

This is two sides who are both vulnerable at the back, both capable of scoring, and both absolutely desperate. The conditions are set for a proper scrap with goals flying in.

The Big Picture

Aalesund have the home advantage and they have slightly better league numbers than Start, but neither of these clubs is in any kind of convincing form. The draw has been Aalesund's most common result at home recently, and with Start needing a win to drag themselves away from the bottom, there is a real chance Start come out of the blocks with some urgency.

Whether that urgency is rewarded or punished by Aalesund's attack is the real question. If history tells us anything about these two sides this season, it is that goals will come. From both ends. Probably several of them.

Jay's Tip

I'm going big on this. Both teams to score is as close to a certainty as you will find in football. Every single Aalesund home game in the last ten has seen both teams score. Start have scored in four of their last five away games. There is no clean sheet in sight for either goalkeeper here, don't @ me. Stick BTTS on, chuck it in your acca, and enjoy your Friday night. Over 2.5 goals as a side bet feels very tempting as well given both sides' numbers. You heard it here first.

Back to the drawing board if it ends 0-0, obviously. But it won't.