Carabao Cup · Sat, 08 Aug 2026, 15:00 KO

Derby

LWLWLLast 5

Kicks off in

4d 7h

Lincoln City

Should you back Derby or Lincoln City?

Derby vs Lincoln City kicks off Saturday 8 August at 15:00 UK time in the Carabao Cup. The match is at Pride Park Stadium, Derby. Our model's pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 54.7% modelled probability (fair decimal price 1.83), best priced 2.10 with bet365 as observed 4 Aug, 05:22. The value angle is Lincoln City to win at a displayed price of 3.30, 9.6 percentage points above our modelled fair price.

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.

The signals

Recorded before kick-off · timestamped displayed prices

Model pick

Under 2.5 goals

Our model rates this at 55% (fair decimal price 1.83); the verified best displayed price implies 48% and was observed 4 Aug, 05:22.

implied 48%model 55%

2.10bet3652.10Betfair2.08Casumo

Value pick

Lincoln City to win

The timestamped displayed price sits 9.6 percentage points above our modelled fair line for this outcome (fair decimal price 2.50).

implied 30%model 40%

3.30betano uk3.30BoyleSports3.25888sport

Full prediction breakdown →

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.

Model vs market

Derby win34%mkt 49%

Draw26%mkt 26%

LNC win40%mkt 29%

Model, set before kick-offMarket, implied by the best pre-match price

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Match preview

Derby's Home Fortress Faces First Carabao Cup Test Against Lincoln City

Derby enter their Carabao Cup opener as favourites on the back of a dominant home record, but Lincoln City arrive with a model edge that the market may be undervaluing. Marcus Vale breaks down the numbers ahead of Saturday's tie at Pride Park.

Read the full preview →

More angles from this match

★ Best edge today · +9.6pp

AI-derived signals · verified best displayed price

DerbyvLNC

xG lean+10.5pp

Lincoln Cityto win

3.40bwin3.40Coral3.30BetVictor

DerbyvLNC

Both teams to score+6.0pp

BTTS · No

2.25BetVictor2.20Unibet2.20bet365

DerbyvLNC

Corners+4.0pp

Under 9.5 corners

1.77Unibet

Past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+ · GambleAware

Most likely scorelines

All odds →

1-1

12.5%

7.00

0-1

11.2%

11.50

1-0

9.5%

8.50

0-0

8.5%

14.00

1-2

8.3%

11.00

Model probability per scoreline. Derby goals first in each score.

18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.

Half-time lean

The model's most likely half-time picture, priced where our tracked bookmakers offer the market.

Half-time result

Level at half-time

Model 44.8%+2.8pp

2.38Unibet2.30888sport2.30William Hill

Half-time / full-time

Lincoln City at half-time, Lincoln City win at full-time

Model 23.9%+5.7pp

5.50bet365

18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.

🧱 Bet builder for this match

Carabao CupShorter odds

Derby vs Lincoln City

Sat 8 Aug, 14:00

Potential returns on £10.00

Derby to win1.87 - 2.05
Over 2.5 Goals1.51 - 3.05
Both Teams to Score - Yes1.57 - 1.65

Best at BetVictor: £64.80

137/25

View full analysis →

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Form & xG · last 6 games

Rolling across all competitions

Derby

1.1

xG for

9▲ +7.9

Goals

2.9

xGA

Last 6 matchesover-performing xG

Lincoln City

—

xG for

—

Goals

—

xGA

Last 0 matches

Form context not yet generated for this fixture.

Player props land closer to kick-off, usually a few hours before the game.

📊 Match preview and data context

No AI summary available yet for this fixture.

SportSignals uses automated analysis with editorial oversight. Check current team news and market prices before relying on this context.

Derby v Lincoln City · Carabao Cup · 08/08/2026, 15:00:00

Frequently asked questions

When is Derby vs Lincoln City and where is it played?
Derby vs Lincoln City takes place on Saturday 8 August at 15:00 (UK time) in the Carabao Cup at Pride Park Stadium, Derby.
What is the prediction for Derby vs Lincoln City?
Our model's pick is Under 2.5 goals (totals), with around 55% confidence. The verified best displayed price is 2.10 with bet365, against a model fair price of 1.83. 18+. Predictions are informational, not betting advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. begambleaware.org.
Where is the betting value in Derby vs Lincoln City?
Our model flags Lincoln City to win as the value pick, around +9.6 percentage points above the market's implied probability. The timestamped displayed price is 3.30 with betano. 18+. Predictions are informational, not betting advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. begambleaware.org.
How can I watch Derby vs Lincoln City?
Check your local official broadcaster or rights-holder for Carabao Cup coverage in your region. SportSignals does not stream matches.
Are SportSignals predictions for Derby vs Lincoln City free?
Yes. Our AI predictions, odds comparison, stats and head-to-head for Derby vs Lincoln City are free to read. 18+. Predictions are informational, not betting advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. begambleaware.org.

Match preview & picks

🎯

Model pick: Under 2.5 goals

55% confidence · Model rates Under 2.5 at 55%; market implies 48%. · verified best displayed at bet365

2.10

Check price

💎

Value pick: Lincoln City win

+9.6pp edge vs market · timestamped displayed at betano

3.30

Check price

📊

xG lean: Lincoln City to win

Model 40.0% · market 29.4%

3.40

Check price

📰

All Odds

Full table →

Bookie	Home	Draw	Away
bwin	21/20★	13/5	12/5★
Coral	Evens	13/5	12/5★
William Hill	19/20	11/4	23/10
Betfair	Evens	27/10	9/4
Ladbrokes	21/20★	13/5	23/10
888sport	19/20	27/10	9/4
Unibet	Evens	53/20	9/4
BoyleSports	Evens	13/5	23/10

+11 more bookmakers on the full odds page.

Prices update regularly. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.

AI Prediction

Verified best displayed price 2.10

Derby win33.7%

Draw26.3%

LNC win40.0%

Top signal

Under 2.5 goals

totals · model 55%

18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.

Edge · SportSignals+

Every +EV price and trend for this match, ranked by edge.

Open the Edge tab

Full-time result accuracy

View all →

50.6%

full-time-result selections recorded before kickoff and settled

944 correct from 1865 resolved picks

Competition scope: all competitions with verified settled selections
Data through:: 3 Aug 2026
Period:: 15 Apr 2026 to 3 Aug 2026

50.6%

Correct means the selection settled as won on the 90-minute result. Every selection counted here was recorded before kickoff. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Should you back Derby or Lincoln City?

Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.

Half-time lean

The model's most likely half-time picture, priced where our tracked bookmakers offer the market.

Half-time result

Level at half-time

Model 44.8%+2.8pp

2.38Unibet2.30888sport2.30William Hill

Half-time / full-time

Lincoln City at half-time, Lincoln City win at full-time

Model 23.9%+5.7pp

5.50bet365

18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.