Define the event before the player
DraftKings' soccer rules illustrate operator-specific settlement for goalscorers, player statistics, cards and corners. Record the exact market text rather than shortening it to "player over."
| Prop family | Required definition question |
|---|---|
| Shots | Attempt, shot on target, blocked shot or provider-specific category? |
| Passes | Attempted, completed, received or final-third pass? |
| Tackles | Attempt, won tackle or combined tackle event? |
| Cards | Player card, team card or booking points? |
| Saves | Which provider and whether shoot-outs count? |
| Goalscorer | Anytime, first, last, regulation only or tournament scope? |
| Corners | Awarded or taken, and by team or match? |
Opta's football-statistics definitions demonstrate that similarly named events can have provider-specific meanings.
Participation and minutes
A player selected in a predicted lineup is not necessarily confirmed to start. Sportmonks' lineup documentation distinguishes confirmed and predicted lineup information and includes sidelined-player context.
Model at least these states:
| State | Probability input | Prop treatment input |
|---|---|---|
| Starts | Expected minutes and role | Full or conditional event distribution |
| Substitute appearance | Entry-time distribution | Reduced opportunity |
| Named but does not play | Non-participation probability | Operator void or loss rule |
| Late role change | Position and set-piece change | Revised event rate |
Worked participation mixture
Suppose a hypothetical player has a 0.70 chance to start, a 0.20 chance to appear as a substitute and a 0.10 chance not to play. A model assigns a 0.55 chance of clearing the prop if starting and 0.20 if appearing as a substitute. If non-participation voids the selection, the unconditional event probability before void treatment is:
Event probability = 0.70 * 0.55 + 0.20 * 0.20 = 0.425, or 42.50%
The contractual ticket probability and return also depend on how the sportsbook removes or reprices a void leg. Do not silently condition on a start unless the accepted rule does so.
Dependence inside a match
Player shots, goals, assists and team totals share minutes, possession, score state and role. A red card or early substitution can affect several legs at once. OpenStax distinguishes independent and related events; use conditional or joint forecasts for same-game props.
Research record
- Freeze the fixture, lineup source and retrieval time.
- Record the provider event definition and correction window.
- Estimate start, substitution and minutes states.
- Map position, role, set pieces, opponent and likely score states.
- Produce a probability distribution, not a confidence label.
- Validate on later eligible props under the same participation rule.
- Save the accepted line, price, receipt and final provider result.
Validation and price
scikit-learn's calibration guidance explains how to compare forecast probabilities with observed frequencies. Evaluate all eligible forecasts, including voids and missing data, rather than only props selected for a parlay.
Expected value then requires the complete probabilities and net payoffs under OpenStax's framework. A richer prop menu does not itself imply softer prices.
Next step
Use Player Props Specials for the next part of this topic.
Continue learning
- Next guide: Soccer Parlay Markets
- Related guide: AI Soccer Predictions for Parlays
Assumptions and limitations
The participation example is hypothetical. Provider corrections, lineup timing, late substitutions, market suspension, state restrictions and operator rules can change both probability and settlement. This page provides no current player picks.
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