Best Soccer Markets for Parlays: Which Bets to Combine
Not all soccer bets combine equally well in parlays. Some markets show natural correlation that works against you. Others complement each other perfectly, offering genuine value when stacked together.
Understanding which markets to combine and which to avoid is the difference between smart parlay building and pure speculation.
Market Correlation Basics
Two bets are positively correlated if one hitting makes the other more likely. They're negatively correlated if one makes the other less likely. They're uncorrelated if one doesn't really affect the other.
In parlays, lower correlation is generally better because it means you're not just betting the same thing twice in different ways.
Example of high correlation: "Manchester City to win" and "Manchester City to win by 2+ goals" are highly correlated. If City wins by 2+, they obviously won by at least 1. They're almost the same bet.
Example of low correlation: "Manchester City to win moneyline" and "Everton to beat Newcastle in a different match" are uncorrelated. Man City's result has no impact on Everton vs Newcastle.
The Fundamental: Moneyline (Match Winner)
Moneyline bets are the foundation of most soccer parlays. You pick which team wins the match.
Pros:
- Clear and simple
- Available at all sportsbooks
- Offers true odds variance (favorites, underdogs, close contests)
- Easiest to research and predict
Cons:
- Shorter odds on favorites
- Draw automatically loses your parlay (in two-way moneyline format)
Correlation note: Moneylines from different matches are essentially uncorrelated unless the teams are playing each other.
Best practices: Use moneylines as your base. Combine three to five moneylines from different matches for a straightforward parlay.
Over/Under Goals
Total goals markets ask whether the combined goals scored by both teams will be over or under a specific number, typically 2.5 goals.
Pros:
- Widely available
- Adds diversification to a parlay
- Low correlation with moneyline picks (somewhat)
- Good odds usually available
Cons:
- Less predictable than moneylines
- Can be affected by sudden injuries or lineup changes
- Weather can impact goal-scoring
Correlation note: Slight positive correlation with related moneylines. A Manchester City moneyline pick is slightly correlated with over 2.5 goals in that same match (City usually scores). But the correlation isn't strong enough to avoid pairing them.
Best practices: Mix over/under goals from different matches into a moneyline parlay to reduce correlation. A parlay of three moneylines plus one over/under goal from a different match is solid. Avoid combining "Team A to win" with "Team A's match over 2.5 goals" too frequently.
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
BTTS bets ask whether both teams will score at least one goal each in the match.
Pros:
- Popular market with good odds
- Independent from many moneyline outcomes
- Works well for parceling matches you expect to be open
- Available at all major sportsbooks
Cons:
- More unpredictable than moneylines
- Relies on both teams being willing to attack
- Defensive performances can kill BTTS bets
Correlation note: Moderate positive correlation with moneylines of either team in the same match. If you pick Team A to win, the probability of both teams scoring changes. But it's not as direct as a spread correlation.
Best practices: Excellent for adding a fourth leg to a three-leg moneyline parlay. Combine BTTS from a different match than your moneylines to reduce correlation. A parlay of "Manchester City to win, Liverpool to win, and BTTS on Chelsea-Arsenal" works well.
Goal Spreads/Handicaps
Spreads in soccer work with goal margins. A -0.5 spread means the team must win by at least one goal. A +0.5 spread means they can win, draw, or lose by one.
Pros:
- Better odds on heavy favorites than moneylines
- Adds variety to parlay combinations
- Good for tactical matchups
- Alternative to straight moneylines
Cons:
- Less intuitive than moneylines for beginners
- Single goal can kill your parlay
- Fewer markets available at some sportsbooks
Correlation note: High positive correlation with the same-match moneyline. If you're betting "City -0.5 goals" and "City moneyline," you're essentially betting City wins twice in different ways. Avoid this combination.
Best practices: Use spreads instead of moneylines on heavy favorites rather than in addition to them. A four-leg parlay with three moneylines and one -0.5 spread on a different match works. Don't combine spread and moneyline on the same match.
First Goalscorer
Betting on which player scores first in a match.
Pros:
- Interesting odds
- Varies greatly between players
- Fun additions to parlays
- Good for same-game parlays (more on this below)
Cons:
- Lower odds generally
- Hard to predict
- Injuries change everything
- Less research available than team-based markets
Correlation note: Moderate positive correlation with the team-winning moneyline. A player who scores first often plays for the team that wins. But it's not guaranteed.
Best practices: Avoid multiple first-goalscorer bets in the same parlay. Use one first-goalscorer in a larger parlay only if you have strong conviction. Better suited for same-game parlays with moneylines.
Player Props (Shots, Assists, Cards)
Modern sportsbooks offer stats on individual players: total shots on target, assists, cards received, etc.
Pros:
- Creates unique parlay combinations
- Good for same-game parlays
- More available data now than ever
- Interesting odds
Cons:
- Harder to predict than team markets
- Lineup changes affect availability
- Less public information than team-based bets
- Some sportsbooks restrict props in parlays
Correlation note: Varies. A player's shot total is related to team success, but not perfectly correlated.
Best practices: Use sparingly in multi-match parlays. Better for same-game parlays where props make more sense. Most valuable when you have specific player knowledge.
Parlay Combinations That Work Well
The Conservative Three-Leg Parlay
Three moneylines from different matches.
Example: Manchester City to beat Sheffield United, Liverpool to beat Brighton, Arsenal to beat Fulham.
Why it works: Low correlation, straightforward, moneylines are the most predictable market.
Typical odds: Three favorites around -150 each might pay +250 to +350.
The Mixed Four-Leg Parlay
Three moneylines plus one over/under or BTTS from a different match.
Example: Man City to win, Liverpool to win, Arsenal to win, and Chelsea-Newcastle over 2.5 goals.
Why it works: Three predictable favorites, fourth leg adds juice without too much correlation.
Typical odds: Could reach +400 to +600 depending on the fourth market.
The Value-Driven Parlay
Moneylines on favorites plus one underdog for odds boost.
Example: Man City to win (-150), Liverpool to win (-130), and Bournemouth to beat Tottenham (+160).
Why it works: Two favorites you expect to hit, one underdog for upside. Balances hit rate with payout.
Typical odds: Might pay +500 to +700 depending on the underdog odds.
The Spread-Heavy Parlay
Mix spreads with moneylines strategically.
Example: Man City -0.5 goals, Liverpool moneyline, Arsenal -0.5 goals, Chelsea moneyline.
Why it works: Spreads give better odds on heavy favorites. Moneylines on closer matches. No same-match spread/moneyline pairing.
Typical odds: Could reach +600 to +1000 depending on spreads used.
Combinations to Avoid
Multiple Bets on the Same Match
Don't combine "Man City to win" with "Man City BTTS" with "Man City over 2.5 goals." You're betting Man City wins three times in different ways.
The only exception is same-game parlays (SGPs), where multiple selections from one match can be strategically combined.
Heavy Favorites Only
Three bets at -200 or heavier odds might only pay +200. You need all three to just break even at a decent return. Better to use straight bets for heavy favorites.
All Underdogs
A parlay of all +150 or higher underdogs might hit at a very low rate. You want to mix in favorites.
Too Many Correlated Legs
"Over 2.5 goals," "both teams to score," and "total shots over 32" on the same matches are all measuring similar things. Diversify your legs across different matches and markets.
Player Props Without Team Context
Don't parlay a player's over on shots when they're benched or injured. Don't add first-goalscorer when the player typically doesn't start. Research lineup and form before adding player props.
Market Selection by Confidence Level
High Confidence Picks (80%+)
Use moneylines. Don't add spreads or props. If you're 85% sure Liverpool beats Brighton, straight moneyline is better than trying to add a fourth leg you're less sure about.
Medium Confidence (60-75%)
Mix moneylines with over/under goals from different matches. A moneyline you're 70% confident about plus a goals total from another match you're 65% confident about makes a decent parlay.
Lower Confidence (50-60%)
This is where parlays get risky. You're not confident enough for straight bets at -110. Parlays offer better odds, but hitting them is harder. Build carefully with only your strongest conviction picks at the foundation.
Sportsbook Variations
Different sportsbooks offer different parlay restrictions.
- DraftKings: Allows most market combinations, including props in same-game parlays.
- FanDuel: Similar flexibility, good parlay builders, frequent parlay boosts.
- BetMGM: Strong parlay offerings, regular boosts, good combo options.
- Caesars: Growing parlay options, some restrictions on props.
- bet365: International-focused, slightly different market names but similar coverage.
Always check what combinations are available on your sportsbook. If your desired parlay can't be built, that's sometimes a sign the correlation is too high.
Building Your First Parlay
Start simple:
- Pick three moneyline selections you genuinely believe in
- Ensure they're from different matches, different leagues ideally
- Compare odds across DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM
- Place on the sportsbook with the best parlay odds
- Track the result and consider what you'd change next time
Once you're comfortable, add a fourth leg (over/under or BTTS) and see how the odds improve.