Methodology
Honest documentation of what we do, how we do it, and where the limits are. Update history at the bottom of the page.
The model
Our proprietary AI engine reads each fixture against the underlying soccer data we hold for both teams: recent form (overall and home-or-away contextual), expected goals (xG) trajectories, head to head record, set-piece propensity, injury impact, referee tendencies, and travel context. It outputs a probability per outcome for every market we cover.
No-vig fair price
A bookmaker price implies a probability that includes the bookmaker margin. We strip the margin proportionally across the available outcomes, sum them to one, and call the result the no-vig fair price. For two-way markets we divide each implied probability by their sum. For three-way markets (home, draw, away) we divide each by the sum of all three.
Edge percentage
Edge is the percentage-point difference between the model's probability and the no-vig fair probability. A model probability of 67.6 against a fair probability of 61.7 is a 5.9-point edge. We surface this as a positive number. Negative edges live on the page too, so users can see where the market is sharper than the model.
What Sharp Lean is, and is not
Sharp Lean is a 0 to 100 score derived from price action across our 25-bookmaker shelf, with Pinnacle as the sharp benchmark and the median of UK recreational books as the soft benchmark. It is not a licensed bets-vs-money feed. We do not have access to public bet share data. The score is a price-action signal, and we say so.
Closing-line value
We compute CLV by snapshotting the last pre-kickoff price per market per book and comparing it to the price you took. CLV is the most honest long-run signal that a betting tool is finding real edges. The formula and the snapshot mechanism are transparent.
What we do not have
Licensed bets-vs-money splits. Insider injury news. Crystal balls. We are honest about the gaps. Where the market is more accurate than the model, the +EV scanner says so by surfacing a negative edge or no edge at all.