Willem II's Nightmare Start Meets Excelsior's Away Momentum in Eredivisie Clash

There are early-season struggles, and then there is what Willem II have produced in the opening two rounds of the 2026 Eredivisie campaign. Two defeats, two goals scored, eight conceded, and a goal difference of minus six that leaves them sitting 17th in the table with zero points. When a team gives up four goals per game in the opening weeks of a season, it is tempting to reach for explanations rooted in attitude or togetherness. The interesting thing is, the underlying numbers suggest the problem runs considerably deeper than that.

Willem II: The Numbers Behind the Collapse

Willem II's xG figures for this season sit at 2.8 for and 4.8 against across their first two matches. For those unfamiliar with expected goals, xG measures the quality of chances created and conceded based on shot location, angle, and type. It is a way of separating genuine defensive vulnerability from bad luck. An xG against figure of 4.8 in two games is not bad luck. That is a structural problem in the defensive shape, because it tells us that opponents are consistently reaching high-quality shooting positions, not simply converting speculative efforts from distance.

Their form data reinforces this. Every game they have played this season has produced both teams scoring and gone over 2.5 goals total. The clean sheet percentage stands at zero. When you combine that with a build-up structure that is clearly not limiting opposition progression into dangerous areas, you have a team that will face a difficult evening against opponents who know how to create chances on the road.

The momentum slope for Willem II across all contexts registers at zero, which in context is almost generous. There is no upward trajectory here to argue that they are improving as the games come. The sample size is small, two matches, and we should be careful about drawing too firm a conclusion from that. But the margin of the defeats and the nature of the chances being conceded suggest this is not a team that simply had two difficult fixtures against strong opponents. The underlying structure needs attention.

Excelsior: Away Form That Deserves Serious Respect

The interesting thing about Excelsior heading into this fixture is the split personality their data reveals depending on context. At home, they have won one, drawn one, and lost three of their last five, which is a record that would not inspire confidence. But switch the context to away from home, and you are looking at a completely different team: three wins and two draws in their last five away matches, with 13 goals scored in the process.

That away xG data is worth unpacking carefully. Their xG for in away matches sits at 1.06 per game, which means they are generating good-quality chances rather than simply finishing above expectation through fortune. Their xG against of 1.52 away from home suggests they concede some threat, but they manage it well enough to keep results positive. Crucially, they are averaging 16.5 shots per game and 6.5 on target in away fixtures, with possession sitting at 51.5 percent. This is a team that travels well, controls the ball, and creates volume in the final third.

Their overall shot numbers in the last five games across all contexts climb further, to 18 shots per game and nine on target. That on-target rate is high and reflects a team that is progressive in its build-up, meaning they move the ball into positions where shots can be taken with purpose rather than simply recycling possession without penetration.

The momentum slope for Excelsior away from home is positive at 0.6, which across a five-game window is a meaningful signal rather than noise. Their overall trajectory across ten games shows a slope of 0.18, which is more modest, because the home form drags the number down. But for this specific fixture, where Excelsior are travelling, the away-context data is what matters most. And that data points clearly in one direction.

Standings Context and What It Tells Us

Excelsior sit ninth in the early Eredivisie standings with three points from two games, having won one and lost one. Their season xG figures show 2.8 for and only 1.0 against, which is a highly favourable underlying picture relative to where they currently sit on points. That is a team whose actual results have not yet fully reflected the quality of chances they are generating and limiting. Regression towards their underlying numbers would mean more wins in the coming weeks, not fewer.

Willem II, by contrast, are 17th with zero points and an xG against of 4.8 that provides no statistical comfort. Their xG for of 2.8 suggests they are at least creating some threat going forward, which is a small but genuine point in their favour. They are not completely toothless. But when you are generating roughly 1.4 xG per game in attack while conceding 2.4 in defence, the structure of the contest is always going to be difficult to navigate.

The Injury Picture and What We Can Say

The data sheet flags one injury of note, a player from Excelsior's squad carrying a minor injury with no confirmed return date. The severity is listed as minor, which means this sits at the lower end of the concern spectrum, but the absence of an expected return date introduces a small degree of uncertainty about Excelsior's available options. Given the information provided, it would not be responsible to speculate further about who that player is or what positional impact their absence creates. What we can say is that a minor injury at this stage of the season is unlikely to fundamentally alter Excelsior's travelling shape.

The Analytical View

What the data actually shows here is a mismatch between a team in genuine early-season difficulty and a side whose away form represents one of the more reliable patterns in the dataset available to us. Willem II need to dramatically improve their defensive structure, specifically the way they are allowing opponents to progress the ball into high-value shooting positions. Until the underlying xG against numbers start to move, the results will not improve either.

Excelsior's over 2.5 goals rate in away matches sits at 80 percent across the last five. Willem II have produced over 2.5 goals in every single game they have played. These two teams combining to produce a high-scoring affair is not a narrative invention. It is what the numbers from both sides independently suggest will happen when they share a pitch.

The away xG data for Excelsior, the pressing volume, the shots on target, and the positive momentum slope travelling away from home all point towards a visitor who should be able to exploit a defensive structure that has been wide open for two successive weeks. And that is the problem for Willem II on Saturday evening.