Como's Away Form Makes Them Dangerous Favourites at Struggling Udinese
Rafael Mbeki ·
Last updated 15 August 2026. Preview will refresh closer to kickoff on Saturday 22 August at 17:30 UK time.
Right, let's get into this one. Udinese vs Como. Serie A. Saturday afternoon. On paper it looks like one of those games you scroll past on the coupon. Don't. Because there is actually a proper story here if you look at the fixtures and dig into the form a little bit.
And mate, the form tells you pretty much everything you need to know.
Udinese: Leaking Goals, Winning Away, Losing at Home
Here is the bit that jumps out at me with Udinese. Away from home, over their last five games in that context, they have won three, drawn one, lost one. Scored ten goals. Conceded four. That is genuinely good. That is a team that travels well.
But then you look at their home form... and it falls off a cliff. Last five games at their own ground? One win, one draw, three losses. Two goals scored. Three conceded. Only 20 per cent of those games have seen both teams score, which sounds like a good thing until you realise they are barely scoring themselves. Zero over 2.5 games in those five home matches. Zero. That stadium is not a fortress right now. It is more like a... slightly damp community centre.
The overall last ten is a mixed bag too. Four wins, two draws, four losses. The momentum slope across their last five overall games sits at minus 0.5 which basically means things are trending in the wrong direction. You do not need to understand exactly what that means, just know that the arrow is pointing down. Trust the process, Udinese fans. Trust the process.
Como: The Form Team Rolling Into Town
Now Como. Look, I am going to be honest with you here. These lot are in some serious form.
Last five overall? Four wins, one draw, zero losses. Eight goals scored, one conceded. Clean sheets in 80 per cent of those games. That is not a fluke, that is a team that knows what it is doing right now.
Away from home specifically, their last five on the road reads: three wins, one draw, one loss. Eight goals for, three against. Sixty per cent clean sheets away from home. And their momentum slope away is plus 0.7, which is the highest number in this whole dataset. They are moving in the right direction at the right time.
I actually looked at the numbers for once and Como's overall last ten is genuinely impressive. Six wins, two draws, two losses. Nineteen goals scored, eight conceded. They are averaging 14 shots per game, seven on target, and they are sitting on 73 per cent possession on average. Seventy three per cent. That is a team that controls games. That is a team that suffocates you.
Now look, there are people on this panel who love their xG. Marcus will be rubbing his hands together right now. The xG numbers for Como (for the statistically curious, and yes I am going to mention it and immediately make fun of it) show them scoring fewer goals than expected but conceding way less than expected. So apparently they are not as good as their results suggest but also their defence is even better than it looks. Make it make sense, xG. Make it make sense.
What I will say is this: the actual goals column is what matters. Nineteen scored, eight conceded in ten games. That is real. You cannot argue with that.
Head to Head: One Game, No Goals, No Clues
Right so the head to head record between these two. One meeting. A goalless draw back in April 2026. Both teams kept clean sheets. Zero goals. Zero BTTS. Zero over 2.5. Brilliant. Absolutely brilliant for anyone trying to find patterns. There is one data point and it tells us precisely nothing useful other than these two have already played a very quiet game against each other this season.
Do not read too much into it. Sample size of one. Move on.
Injuries and Team News
No injury data has come through as of the last update on 15 August. We will refresh this closer to the weekend when team news drops. Check back for the final update before kickoff.
Jay's Take and the Tip
Look, I am not going to pretend this is a close call. Como are the better team right now. They travel well. They score goals. They keep clean sheets. Udinese at home have been genuinely poor.
The only thing that makes me pause is that lone head to head ended 0-0. Udinese's home games have been low scoring affairs across the board. And Como, despite all that possession and all those shots, have a momentum slope away from home that has actually dipped slightly to minus 0.2 in the home context data... though their away context slope is a very healthy plus 0.7. I know. Confusing. Football is confusing.
You heard it here first. Back to the drawing board if it goes wrong. As usual.