Reims vs Guingamp pre-match centre

Right, Saturday lunchtime football in Ligue 2. Not everyone's cup of tea, I get that. But Reims vs Guingamp on the 5th of September has actually got some proper intrigue to it if you look at the numbers. And look, I have looked at the numbers. Don't tell anyone.

The Home Side Situation

Reims are sitting 11th in Ligue 2 after two games. Two draws. No wins, no losses. That tells you everything about where they are right now. Decent enough not to get battered, not quite good enough to close games out.

Look at the fixtures, look at the home form over the last ten, and it paints a picture. In their six most recent home games, Reims have won twice, drawn three times, and lost once. That's a BTTS rate of over 83 percent at home this season. Eighty-three percent, mate. Goals go in at both ends here almost every single week. Their last five home outings read DWDWD. Draw, win, draw, win, draw. Like clockwork. Honestly it's almost beautiful in how annoyingly predictable it is.

Here's the thing though. Over those same last five home games, they've scored 12 and conceded 9. That's not a defensive shambles, but it's not a fortress either. Their clean sheet percentage at home is sitting around 20 percent. So if you're backing them to keep it tight at the back, history says good luck with that.

What Reims do have going for them is the ball. 67 percent possession at home on average. They're on the front foot, they're creating chances. Nine shots on target per game at home is a decent number. The momentum slope for their home form is nudging positive too. Small movement, but it's going the right way. They want to win this one.

Guingamp Are in a Bit of a State Away From Home

Now here is where it gets interesting. Guingamp are 8th in the table, which sounds fine. Three points from two games. But their away record over their last ten trips? Lost five. All five. LLLLL. Not a single point on the road.

And it's not like they're nicking goals either. Four goals scored away from home in those five games, nine conceded. Their clean sheet percentage on the road is zero. Nil. Nothing. Every single away game, the net has rippled behind their keeper.

Now, they do actually have more of the ball away from home. 59 percent possession on the road, which is a strange profile. They're a team that likes to have the ball but can't seem to do anything with it when they travel. Or stop the other lot from scoring through them. 60 percent of their away games have ended with both teams scoring, by the way. So yeah. Combine that with Reims's home BTTS rate and we might be onto something here.

Guingamp also come into this with a significant injury concern. They've got four players out, three of them long-term absences with no expected return date. That's a proper chunk of the squad missing. No names in the data to pinpoint exactly who, but four unavailable players at any level hurts your depth and your options. Their manager is going to be patching things together here.

The Tactical Picture

Look at the fixtures through a tactical lens and this one has mid-table Ligue 2 written all over it, and I mean that in a good way. These are two sides who both concede. Both contribute to open games. Reims dominate possession at home. Guingamp try to keep the ball away from home but end up on the wrong end of results.

Reims's overall form over the last ten is actually not bad. Three wins, six draws, one loss. 18 goals scored, 14 conceded. The xG numbers, and yes I know what xG means, I just think it sounds like a rejected superhero name, but the xG numbers do suggest Reims are creating more than they're giving up. Six for, four against. Whether that translates on the day is another matter entirely. Trust the process, right? Sure.

One thing that did catch my eye. Reims's away form over the last ten shows a momentum slope of minus 0.6. That's a dip. But we're not talking about their away form today. At home, that slope is plus 0.26. They're building. Slowly, frustratingly, but they're building.

The Verdict

Honestly, I think Reims win this one. They're at home, they've got the ball, they've got the better recent form in their own ground, and they're facing a Guingamp side who simply do not pick up points on their travels. Five losses on the spin away from home is not a blip, that's a pattern.

But given how leaky both defences are, I'd be shocked if this ended goalless. BTTS looks nailed on to me. Reims to win and both teams to score feels like the call. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67 percent of Reims's home games recently and 60 percent of Guingamp's away games. The goals are coming from somewhere.

If you're looking for a correct score punt, and I am always looking for a correct score punt because I am who I am, 2-1 to Reims has a nice ring to it. Don't @ me.

I'm going big on this: Reims to win, both teams to score. Add it to your Saturday acca and join me in hoping for the best. You heard it here first.