Can Real Sociedad II's Leaky Defence Cope With an Almería Side Finding Their Feet?

Saturday lunchtime. La Liga 2. A reserve side that cannot stop conceding, hosting a team that has just put two wins back to back. If you are looking for a straightforward match to watch, this might not be it. If you are looking for one that tells you something about where both clubs stand right now, this is exactly the one.

The Home Side: Decent Going Forward, Wide Open at the Back

Real Sociedad II have picked up two wins, two draws and one loss across their last five La Liga 2 matches. On paper, that is a reasonable return. The thing is, those numbers hide a problem that any manager worth his salt should be losing sleep over.

They have not kept a single clean sheet in those five matches. Not one. Their goals against tally over that same period sits at six, and both their last five and last ten completed matches show a both-teams-to-score rate of 80 percent. That is not bad luck. That is a pattern. That is a defensive unit that is not doing the basics.

Real Sociedad II beat FC Andorra 3-1 in their most recent outing. Three goals scored, fine. But they still conceded. Before that, they drew 1-1 with Tenerife, drew 2-2 with Burgos, beat Albacete 2-1, and lost to Castellón 1-0. Only that Castellón defeat was a low-scoring affair, and even then they were on the wrong end of it.

Listen, you can live with conceding if you are scoring enough to compensate. But you cannot run that risk indefinitely, and you certainly cannot run it against a side that has been putting three goals past opponents with alarming ease.

The Visitors: Inconsistent, But Capable of Real Damage

Almería's recent form reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five La Liga 2 matches. Three wins, no draws, two losses. They are a team that blows hot and cold, and there is no in-between with them. When they go, they go. When they do not, they ship goals and disappear.

Their most recent result tells you which version you might be getting on Saturday. Almería beat Córdoba 2-0. Clean sheet. Controlled. The match before that, they beat Cádiz 3-2, scoring three goals even while conceding. Their clean sheet percentage over the last five is 40 percent, which is four times better than Real Sociedad II's.

The two defeats in that run are worth noting. Almería lost 0-1 to Sabadell and 0-1 to Tenerife. Both times they scored nothing and conceded once. When Almería are off, they are very off. But the timing of those losses matters. They came in the middle of the run. The team has since responded with back-to-back wins. That is the kind of attitude you want to see.

Over ten completed La Liga 2 matches, Almería have five wins, one draw and four losses. They have scored 15 and conceded 12. They are not a side that shuts up shop. They want to play. The question is whether their defensive standards are high enough to grind out a result when they need to.

Head to Head: Only One Meeting, and It Was Not Close

There is one previous meeting on record between these two sides in this competition. Almería won it, and they won it comfortably. Real Sociedad II scored once. Almería scored five. Both teams got on the scoresheet, so it was not a shutout, but it was a statement result. One match is a tiny sample and you cannot build a prediction on it alone, but you cannot ignore a 5-1 scoreline either.

That meeting took place in March 2026. Almería were the dominant side that day. Real Sociedad II will be looking to show that result meant nothing. Almería will be looking to show that it meant exactly what it looked like.

The Injury Situation

There is one confirmed long-term injury in the data, affecting a player in the Almería squad. The player has been out since January 2025 with no expected return date. That kind of prolonged absence shapes a squad. You cannot replace experience and minutes like that overnight. It does not derail Almería's chances here, but it is a factor worth keeping in mind.

What Actually Matters on Saturday

Real Sociedad II's biggest problem is simple. They cannot keep a clean sheet. Over ten La Liga 2 matches their clean sheet rate is 10 percent. One match in ten. That is unacceptable for any side trying to string results together at this level. The desire to defend, to hold a line, to make that a point of pride, does not appear to be there consistently enough.

Almería, for all their inconsistency, have shown they can hurt teams. They beat Eldense 3-0 earlier in the run. They put three past Cádiz. They scored five in that one head-to-head meeting. Real Sociedad II's defence has an open door sign hanging on it.

The thing is, Real Sociedad II can score as well. They beat Andorra 3-1 recently. They scored eight goals in five matches. If Almería switch off defensively, which their record shows they sometimes do, there will be chances at both ends.

This looks like a match where goals are coming. Both sides have shown a willingness to attack and an inability to consistently defend. The 80 percent both-teams-to-score rate for Real Sociedad II over five matches is one of the most consistent numbers in this whole data set. Almería's own BTTS rate drops over the longer sample, but their recent form includes a 3-2 win and a 2-0 win, so they are in a scoring mood.

Almería arrive the better side on current form. They have won more, conceded less recently, and they have the psychological edge from that head-to-head record. Real Sociedad II at home adds something, but a reserve side playing at home in the second tier is not the same fortress it would be for a first team.

Almería to win. They have the standards right now. Real Sociedad II do not. End of.