Ely City vs March Town United: FA Cup First Round Qualifying Preview, Tips and Prediction

Last updated: 1 August 2026. Seven days out from kick-off and we've got some proper data to work with now. Let's get into it.

Right, What Are We Actually Looking At Here?

Ely City hosting March Town United in the FA Cup. Saturday the 8th of August, 2pm kick-off. Look, I know some of you are rolling your eyes. Non-league FA Cup ties in early August... I can hear Connor sighing from here. But honestly? This is exactly what the FA Cup is about. Two local sides, proper football, everyone giving it everything because it means something. Don't sleep on this one.

The FA Cup at this stage is pure chaos, by the way. No form data, no head-to-head records to lean on, no injury news coming through yet. It's the footballing equivalent of spinning the wheel and hoping for the best. Which, let's be honest, is how most of my accas feel anyway.

What the Model Is Saying

Right, so this is where it gets interesting. The SportMonks model has had a proper look at this one and it's come out with some numbers worth talking about.

March Town United are given a 40.2% probability of winning this. So they're the fancied side according to the model, but only just. That tells you this is genuinely tight. We're not talking about a dominant favourite here. We're talking about a game where anything can happen, which is either exciting or terrifying depending on whether your money is on it.

But here's the bit that really caught my eye...

Goals, Goals, Goals

The model is absolutely screaming goals in this one. Both teams to score is sitting at a 59% probability. Over 2.5 goals comes in at 62%. Now I'll be honest with you, I usually take these numbers with a pinch of salt. Marcus loves his xG and whatever other letters he strings together, and I pretend not to listen, but I actually looked at the numbers for once and... yeah, the model is really leaning into this being an open game.

Think about it. Early season, pre-season legs, warm August afternoon, two sides absolutely desperate to make a run in the FA Cup. Defences haven't tightened up yet. Everyone's still buzzing from the summer. These early rounds can be wild. Genuinely wild. And 62% on over 2.5 goals is not a number to ignore.

Confidence on the main tip sits at 40 out of 100, by the way. So the model itself is not exactly nailing its colours to the mast here. This is a low confidence pick for a reason. Tight game, limited data, early season. Make of that what you will.

Look at the Fixtures

Well... there aren't any to look at. That's the honest truth. No form data available for either side. We're going in essentially blind on recent results. The head-to-head record? Empty. Standings? Nothing. This is the FA Cup extra preliminary rounds, so we're piecing it together from whatever we can get.

What I will say is this. March Town United being the model's pick suggests they're the stronger side on paper. But Ely City have home advantage, and in non-league football, home advantage actually means something. It's not like a half-empty Premier League ground where the away end is noisier. This is your ground, your fans, your patch. That matters.

Team News and Injuries

Nothing to report at this stage. Genuinely nothing. No injury news has come through as of the 1st of August. We're seven days out and it's early season, so hopefully both squads are in decent nick. Keep an eye on this page closer to the weekend because we'll update as soon as anything comes through. If a key player picks up a knock in training, that could completely change how you approach this game from a betting perspective.

Jay's Betting Take

Okay. Here's where I earn my reputation as the accumulator king. And by king I mean the bloke who gets it wrong most weeks but occasionally hits one so big that it becomes content for a month.

I'm going big on this for the goals markets. Both teams to score at 59% probability is the standout number for me. Over 2.5 goals at 62% backs it up. If you're building a Saturday acca and you want a non-league FA Cup game to spice things up, BTTS in this one is your friend. Don't @ me if it finishes 0-0.

On the outright result, the model gives March Town United the edge at 40.2% probability. But with confidence at just 40, I wouldn't be doubling down on them to win as your banker. This feels like exactly the kind of game where Ely City nick it at home and we all act surprised. The scenes if that happens...

Honestly, if odds become available closer to the weekend, the correct score market could be worth a cheeky punt. Something like 2-1 either way. Goals expected, tight margins, early season madness. You heard it here first.

Back to the drawing board if this one lets me down. But I've got a good feeling about the goals. I always have a good feeling. That's both my greatest strength and my greatest weakness.

The Verdict

March Town United are the slight favourites according to the model but this is properly tight. Goals look likely, defences will be shaky, and it's the FA Cup in August which means vibes are immaculate regardless of everything else.

Ely City at home will fancy themselves. March Town United on the road with momentum. Something has to give, and the numbers suggest it'll give multiple times.

We'll be back with a full match day update as kick-off approaches. Any injury news, any team sheets, any snippets from either camp, we'll have it. Stay locked in.

Prediction: March Town United to win, BTTS, Over 2.5 Goals. Low confidence. Typical FA Cup madness incoming.