Vitória Guimarães vs Casa Pia
Post-match recap
AI-writtenVitória Guimarães fell to Casa Pia 0-1 in Liga Portugal, a result that cost our model. We had backed a Guimarães win at 56% probability, but the visitors held firm for the upset. Guimarães came into the match uneven, posting one win, two draws and two losses across their last five outings. Casa Pia, meanwhile, had won just once in their previous five games yet found the breakthrough when it mattered. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Casa Pia's 1-0 victory lifted them from 16th position and provided relief from a four-game losing streak. Vitória Guimarães remained seventh but saw their inconsistency punished; our model had flagged their 20 percent clean sheet rate as a vulnerability. The result represented a rare bright spot for Casa Pia's relegation-form campaign, though both sides remain among the lower reaches of Liga Portugal.
Vitória Guimarães failed to break down Casa Pia's defence and suffered a 0-1 defeat at home. The hosts managed 4 goals across their last five matches but could not find the net here; their clean sheet record stands at just 20 percent, and they have conceded 10 goals in five games. This loss extended their inconsistent run, with only one win in their last five outings leaving them seventh in the table.
Casa Pia secured a crucial away victory with a single goal, overcoming their poor recent form of one win in five matches. The visitors generated 2.00 xG and held firm defensively despite their league-wide struggles; they have conceded 13 goals in five games but managed a clean sheet here. The win marked only their second positive result in a difficult run.