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Jay Thompson · 26 July 2026
Last updated 30 July 2026. Seven days out from kick-off and we've got predictions, odds, and enough Excelsior away data to make a proper call on this one. Right, let's get into it.
SC Cambuur vs Excelsior. Eredivisie. Friday 7 August, 6pm. Season opener vibes, new campaign energy, all that good stuff. Honestly, I love a Friday night Eredivisie fixture. Dutch football at 6pm with a coffee and a cheeky acca already sitting on the app? Perfect start to the weekend, mate.
Right, so our model has SC Cambuur at a 49.3% chance of winning this. That translates to odds of roughly 2.03 if we're being fair. Grosvenor are pricing them at 2.55. That's a 10.1% edge, which is genuinely interesting. Look, models aren't magic. Confidence sits at 49 out of 100, which is basically the model telling you it's a coin flip with a slight lean. But that edge over the market? That's worth noting.
The away odds are 2.50 on bet365, the draw is 3.60. So it's basically a three-way split, which tells you everything about how evenly matched these two are supposed to be. Nobody knows who's going to win this. Fine. Let's find an angle we actually believe in.
Here's where it gets tasty. Excelsior's away form over their last five on the road reads WWDDL. That's not bad at all. Two wins, two draws, one defeat. They're scoring goals as well. Ten goals in those five away games. Ten! That's two a game on average. Decent attacking output for a side sitting 17th heading into the new season.
But here's the thing. Here's the actual thing. They have not kept a single clean sheet in any of those five away games. Not one. Zero. Clean sheet percentage away from home? Absolutely zilch. And their BTTS rate away from home over those five games is 100%. One hundred percent, mate. Every single away game, both teams have scored. Every. Single. One.
Look at that and tell me the BTTS market isn't screaming at you. Go on. I'll wait.
I actually looked at the numbers for once and the overall picture backs it up. Excelsior's last ten games overall show a 77.78% BTTS rate and a 66.67% over 2.5 rate. Their last five games overall? BTTS hits 80% of the time and over 2.5 lands in 80% of those too. This is a team that is involved in football matches. Actual football matches with goals in them. Refreshing stuff.
The model gives BTTS Yes a 58% probability. The market has it at 65% implied. Now the model says that's not a positive edge bet, which is fair enough. But look at the raw Excelsior away data and you start to wonder if the model is being a bit stingy on that number. A hundred percent BTTS rate in away games isn't nothing. That's a pattern.
Over 2.5 goals is 1.61 on bet365. Model gives it 59%. Market implies 62%. Again, slight negative edge on paper. But combined with everything we know about Excelsior's tendency to be involved in goal-fests on the road? I reckon this game has goals written all over it.
Right, full transparency here. We've got no home form data for Cambuur whatsoever. Blank. Nothing. The season hasn't started yet, the standings show zero games played for every team in 2026, so we're genuinely going in blind on what Cambuur look like at home this campaign.
What we do know from the previous season's data floating around in there is that the standings show Cambuur entered this new season at position 17. That's not a great starting point, is it. Not exactly inspiring. But new season, new vibes. Could be a completely different squad. Could have had a brilliant pre-season. We genuinely don't know yet, which is exactly why the odds are so wide open.
No injury data either. Clean sheet on the injury front. Literally no information about who's available for either side. That adds uncertainty, and uncertainty usually means the market is pricing things fairly. Which brings me back to goals being the smarter angle than picking a winner.
One thing to flag. Excelsior's home record in their last five reads DWLL. One win, one draw, two losses. Momentum slope of 0.6 at home, which sounds okay, but a 1W-1D-2L record is not great. However, they're the away side here, and their away form is genuinely better. Go figure. Some teams just travel well. Excelsior might be one of them right now.
I'm going big on this. BTTS Yes at 1.53. Look, the edge isn't technically there according to the model. But Excelsior have scored in every away game in their last five. Every single one. And Cambuur are at home in a season opener where they'll want to make a statement. This game has goals in it. Back to back goals from both sides feels inevitable to me.
If you want to get a bit more creative, Over 2.5 at 1.61 is sitting right there. You heard it here first, this is not a game that ends 1-0. Don't @ me.
For the match result, I get the 2.55 on Cambuur given the model edge, but honestly I wouldn't be loading up on a home win when neither side has played a competitive game yet and the draw no bet is identical at 1.83 each way. If you're going Cambuur, pair it with goals rather than betting on a straight win from a team we know very little about heading into a new season.
Correct score punt for the thrill seekers? I'd be looking at something like 2-1 Cambuur. Not going to tell you the odds make sense because they never do on correct scores. But the vibes are there. Trust the process, as they say. They're wrong about what that phrase means, by the way, but still.
Season opener, two sides we don't know loads about yet, and a model that basically says flip a coin on the winner. The clearest signal in this whole match is Excelsior's 100% away BTTS rate. Build around that. Goals, goals, and more goals. Friday night Dutch football, both teams score, everyone goes home happy. Well. Almost everyone.
