Hammarby vs Anderlecht
UEFA Europa LeagueFull time · 23 Jul 2026
DrewWDLDDLast 5
Full time
1 — 1
90+4'
⚽ Danylo Sikan 6' · ⚽ Frank Junior Adjei 90'
DrewWWWDLLast 5
PRESSURE INDEX · FINAL▲ HAM · last goal · 90'
68
32
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Jay Thompson · 23 July 2026
Right, where do we even start with this one. Hammarby vs Anderlecht. Europa League. Everything pointing towards a home win. The stats, the form, the momentum. And then... a 1-1 draw. Football, mate. Never changes.
Anderlecht came out of the traps quick. Really quick. Six minutes on the clock and the away side had the lead through a field goal. That is a horrible start for any team, especially at home in European football. Hammarby had done all the preparation, all the build-up, and within six minutes they were chasing the game. Rough.
Now here is the thing though. Hammarby did not panic. They kept the ball, they pushed, and honestly the stats from this match tell a pretty clear story. Look at the possession: 56 per cent for Hammarby versus 44 per cent for Anderlecht. Look at the shots: 12 for Hammarby, just 6 for Anderlecht. Dangerous attacks: 70 to 33 in Hammarby's favour. Corners: 5 to 2. By every single measure you can think of, Hammarby were the better side across 90 minutes. They just couldn't put it in the net when it mattered.
The match had a bit of needle to it, let's be honest. Anderlecht picked up two yellow cards in a three-minute spell around the midpoint of the first half, at 24 and 27 minutes, both for roughing. Then Hammarby got one at 35 minutes for tripping, and another at the start of the second half. Niggly stuff all round.
But the big one came later. Anderlecht ended the game with a red card. One of their lads saw red and suddenly Hammarby had a man advantage to work with. You would think, right, that is it. Home side, more possession, more shots, now a man up. Win the game. But football is cruel and Hammarby couldn't quite make the breakthrough before the final whistle started to loom.
Anderlecht were doing the dirty work. They made five substitutions to Hammarby's two. They were managing the game, rotating personnel, trying to see it out. Their goalkeeper was busy. Their defenders were throwing themselves in front of things. Classic away performance from a side trying to hold on to a lead.
And then it happened. Hammarby made a substitution at 86 minutes, bringing on a fresh pair of legs. Four minutes later, that same substitute scored. Ninety minutes on the clock. A field goal to make it 1-1. Absolute scenes.
Listen, there would have been limbs in that stadium. A team that has dominated possession, dominated territory, thrown everything at the opposition, finally gets the reward right at the death. The place must have gone absolutely mad. Even as a neutral you have got to appreciate that.
Anderlecht's goalscorer, the one who started all this at minute six, had already been taken off at 82 minutes. He had done his job, or so the Anderlecht bench thought. Funny how football works, isn't it.
Honestly, I actually looked at the numbers for once and they back up what your eyes would have told you watching this. Hammarby's home form coming into this? Stunning. Six wins from their last ten at home, 26 goals scored, only 5 conceded. Over 2.5 goals in 75 per cent of their home games. They are a proper force on their own patch.
Anderlecht away from home is a different story. Their last ten away games show 3 wins, 1 draw, and 6 losses. They had conceded 19 goals in those 10 games. They are not a comfortable travelling side. So for them to come here, go in front in the sixth minute, and hold on until the 90th... that is actually a decent result from their point of view even though they will be gutted to concede at the death.
The model we had on this one fancied Hammarby to win at 68.4 per cent probability. A 16.1 per cent edge over the market. The home side dominated everything and yet couldn't get the win. That is football for you. You cannot always trust the process, no matter how good the numbers look. Don't @ me.
Worth noting that Hammarby are carrying a major injury at the moment, with one of their players ruled out until the end of August. That kind of absence always has a knock-on effect, even if you can't always see it directly in one game's stats. Squad depth matters in European football and look at the fixtures coming up, that is going to be something to keep an eye on.
A point each. Hammarby will feel they deserved more. Anderlecht will be relieved they didn't lose, especially after going down to ten men. The 90th-minute leveller changes the complexion of everything. If Hammarby had lost this, the tie would have felt very different. Now? It is alive.
Shots on target: 6 for Hammarby, 4 for Anderlecht. That conversion rate from Hammarby is the story of this game. So many dangerous attacks, so many shots off target, and only a last-gasp goal to show for it. You can't keep playing as well as they did and not eventually get what you deserve though. The draw feels fair but also feels like a missed opportunity.
Madness from start to finish. A goal after six minutes, cards flying in, a red card, five substitutions from Anderlecht trying to hold the lead, and then a substitute scoring in the 90th. You heard it here first: this tie is far from over. Hammarby at home are a different animal entirely and Anderlecht will know they got away with something here.
Edge · SportSignals+
Closing-line value and settled EV for every pick in this match.
Open SportSignals+Correct means the selection settled as won on the 90-minute result. Every selection counted here was recorded before kickoff. Past performance does not guarantee future results.