Burnley vs Notts County
Post-match recap
The record of the gameBurnley drew 1-1 with Notts County at Turf Moor in the Carabao Cup. Our model backed Notts County to win at 40 percent probability; the pick missed. Burnley arrived in poor form, winless in five matches, while Notts County had won three of their last five. Both sides found the net despite the hosts' struggles and the visitors' defensive record. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Burnley's five-game losing streak in league competition creates urgency in the cup, though Notts County's momentum offers a genuine threat. The visitors sit significantly higher in their division with superior recent results and defensive discipline. Burnley's 13 goals conceded in five matches versus Notts County's 6 in the same span illustrates the gulf in form. Cup competition may suit Burnley's need for reset, yet County arrive as clear favorites on current trajectory.
Burnley arrive in poor form, winless across five matches with three draws and two defeats in their last five outings. They've conceded 13 goals in that span while managing only 3 in return; our model flags defensive vulnerability at 0 clean sheets. Recent results show 1-1 vs Wolves, 0-1 at Arsenal, 2-2 vs Aston Villa, 1-3 at Leeds, and 0-1 vs Manchester City. BTTS probability stands at 60 percent.
Notts County show contrasting form with three wins from five matches, though two defeats complicate the picture. Their defensive record is stronger; 60 percent clean sheet rate and 6 goals conceded across the run. Recent sequence: 3-0 vs Salford City, 0-0 vs Chesterfield, 1-0 at Chesterfield, 1-1 vs Bristol Rovers, 1-0 at Colchester United. BTTS probability just 20 percent reflects their solidity.