Bournemouth vs Everton

Last updated 15 August 2026. Right, we are two weeks out from this one and honestly the data is already painting a pretty clear picture. Bournemouth vs Everton, Saturday 29 August, 3pm kick-off. On paper it looks like a mid-table snoozer. Look a bit closer though and there are some genuinely interesting things going on here. Grab a brew. Let's get into it.

The Form Book: Bournemouth Are Quietly Brilliant

Look, I'll be honest. Bournemouth do not always get the credit they deserve and that is madness to me. Ten games unbeaten overall. Ten. Four wins, six draws. No losses. That is a proper run of form for a side sitting sixth in the Premier League. Last season they finished sixth too, 57 points, 13 wins, 18 draws. Consistent is the word.

Their home form over the last five is DWDDD. One win, four draws, no defeats. Some people will look at that and go "boring." I look at that and go "solid as a rock at home." Over the last ten home games they have scored 18 goals, conceded 14. BTTS has landed in 80 percent of those games. That is not nothing, mate.

Everton Away From Home: An Absolute Horror Show

Right. Let's talk about Everton on the road because... wow. Their last five away games read LDLDL. Not a single win. Two draws, three losses. Nine goals conceded in those five games. Zero clean sheets away from home. Zero. Their away clean sheet percentage is sitting at a fat round nought.

Look at the fixtures and it gets worse for Everton. Their overall last five is LLDDL. No wins at all in their most recent five across any competition. Three defeats. Momentum slope of minus 0.22 over the last ten overall, that is one of the steeper negative trends I have seen this early in a season. Something is not right at Everton right now and traveling to a side on a ten-game unbeaten run is not exactly the cure you would prescribe.

Here is the thing though and I will give Everton this. Their home form has a bit more about it. LDLWW in their last five at home, two wins on the spin before this run of away games. So they can do it. Just not away from home. Not right now.

League Standings Tell the Story

Bournemouth are sixth. Everton are thirteenth. That gap matters. It is not insurmountable over a season but right now the form lines are diverging rather than converging. Bournemouth have 57 points from last season's campaign, 13 wins, 18 draws. Everton have 49 points, 13 wins but 10 draws and 15 losses. Bournemouth have been drawing games Everton have been losing. That is the difference in a nutshell.

Honestly, if Everton do not sort out whatever is going wrong away from home they are going to find themselves in a relegation scrap faster than they think. Thirteenth with that away form is a dangerous place to be.

Head to Head: Not Much to Go On

The head-to-head record between these two is basically a coin flip. Only two meetings in the data, one win each, two goals each. The last meeting on 10 February 2026 ended 1-2 so Everton actually won that one. BTTS landed in one of the two games, over 2.5 goals in one of two. Small sample, mate. Barely enough to read anything into it. What I will say is this fixture has been tight historically and both teams have shown they can score against each other.

The Numbers Bit (Please Bear With Me)

Alright so the fancy expected goals stuff, you know, that thing where a computer watches a shot and tells you how likely it was to go in... anyway. Bournemouth's xG for over their last five away games is 4.2 but they have actually scored 6. So they are outperforming whatever the computer thinks they should be doing. Good. Who needs the computer.

Everton away, their xG for is 1.51 in the last five away games but they have somehow scored 5. So they are also overperforming on that metric on the road. Interesting. I actually looked at the numbers for once and that tells me both sides have been clinical when they do create chances. Bournemouth just create a lot more of them. 27 shots per game in their last five away. Everton managed 14 away from home. That gap in volume is significant.

Injury News

There is one injury flagged in the data and it is on the Bournemouth side. A player has been out since 29 July with a moderate injury, no expected return date given yet. We do not have the name from the data sheet so keep an eye on the team news closer to the weekend. One absentee for the home side is not ideal but Bournemouth have been rotating and winning throughout so the squad depth looks fine.

What Actually Happens on Saturday

Look, Bournemouth at home, unbeaten in ten, against an Everton side that has not won away in five games and has conceded nine goals on the road in their last five outings. The home side have to be favourites here. Bournemouth's home BTTS rate over ten games is 80 percent. Everton's overall BTTS rate in the last five is 80 percent too. Both these sides seem to score and concede regularly. Both teams to score looks very interesting to me.

Bournemouth win or draw feels right. They have not lost in ten. Everton away is a disaster zone right now. But Everton do carry a goal threat even on the road, five goals in five away games despite the poor results. A Bournemouth win with both teams scoring feels like the logical landing spot here.

Jay's Saturday Special Shout

I'm going big on this. Bournemouth win and both teams to score. BTTS is screaming at you from every angle in this data. Bournemouth have the quality to get the job done at home and Everton will nick one even when they lose, that has been the pattern. Stick it in the acca, five teams, fiver stake, live the dream. Will I nail it? Mate, you know my record. Back to the drawing board has been my most used phrase this season. But this one feels good. Don't @ me when it lands!

Bournemouth vs Everton, Saturday 29 August, 3pm. Get on it.