Deportivo Alaves vs Osasuna

There is a thread running through the early weeks of this La Liga season, and it is worth paying attention to. Some clubs have arrived at the new campaign looking sharper, more organised, and more purposeful than anyone expected. Deportivo Alaves are one of them. Osasuna, right now, are not.

Sunday's fixture at Mendizorroza kicks off at 17:30 UK time and it presents a fascinating contrast in momentum. Alaves sit first in the 2026 La Liga table after one match played, having won their opener and posted an xG of 1.7 with just 0.3 conceded. That is a disciplined, controlled performance and one that fits with the form picture they have been building across the previous months. Osasuna, meanwhile, sit twelfth with no points on the board yet, and when you look beyond that single match to the broader form data, the real question is just how much trouble Jagoba Arrasate's side are in.

Alaves: The Home Fortress Is Beginning to Take Shape

Let's start with Alaves at home, because the numbers here are genuinely interesting. Over their last ten home matches, they have won four, drawn three, and lost three, which sounds moderate. But the over 2.5 goals rate in those games sits at 70 per cent and BTTS has come in at 70 per cent as well. Alaves at home is not a ground where matches die. Games happen there.

Their most recent five home matches tell a slightly different story. Three wins, no draws, two losses, with a 60 per cent clean sheet rate and over 2.5 goals landing only 40 per cent of the time. The form string reads WLWLW, which gives you an alternating pattern that is a little unsettling for anyone trying to predict a clean home win. But here is what nobody is asking: that pattern ended on a win, and Alaves' overall last-five form across all competitions reads WLWWD with a positive momentum slope of 0.10. They are trending in the right direction.

Their away form in the last five is actually the most encouraging thread in the data. Two wins, two draws, one loss, with 10 goals scored and 9 conceded, and a BTTS rate of 80 per cent. That is a side capable of creating and converting in open football. The xG numbers from that away window are balanced almost perfectly, 1.83 for and 1.84 against, which suggests the results are reflecting genuine performance rather than fortune.

Osasuna: Five Straight Defeats and a Worrying Away Record

The picture for Osasuna is considerably darker. Their last five matches in all competitions produced five losses. No wins, no draws, five defeats. Goals scored: five. Goals conceded: ten. The clean sheet percentage across those five games stands at zero.

The away context makes it worse. In their last five away matches specifically, Osasuna have won none, drawn one, and lost four. Their xG for in that away window is 0.65, against 2.13. That is a team being comprehensively outplayed on the road and not converting what little they do create. The shots are going in, 13 per game on average away from home, but only five are landing on target per game, and the goals simply are not coming.

Their momentum slope across the last ten overall matches is minus 0.25, the most negative figure in this data set for either side. The form string across that ten-game window reads LLLLLWLDDW, and those two wins at the end came several results ago. Since then, the run has been bleak.

Osasuna finished 17th in La Liga last season with 42 points from 38 games, winning 11 and losing 18. Alaves finished 14th with 43 points, a marginally better return. On paper these are two sides of similar standing. But momentum and recent form suggest the gap between them right now is considerably larger than three points in the final table implied.

Head-to-Head Context and the Goals Question

The head-to-head record between these two sides is limited in the data available. Two meetings recorded, with Osasuna taking one win and one draw. Alaves have not beaten Osasuna in recent encounters, and Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in the head-to-head. The last meeting ended 2-2, which is consistent with the broader goalscoring picture these two teams tend to produce. The average goals per game across their two head-to-head meetings is 3.5, and both matches have gone over 2.5 goals, giving a 100 per cent over 2.5 rate in this fixture.

That context matters when you combine it with what we already know about Alaves at home. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80 per cent of their last five home games. Even in the period where Alaves tightened up, goals still came because both sides found the net.

The Betting Picture

And that brings us to where the value might sit on Sunday. The home win looks logical and the data supports it, but Alaves' home form has that alternating quality that gives you pause. They are not a side that simply bludgeons teams at Mendizorroza every week.

What does stand out clearly is the goals picture. Both teams have scored in 80 per cent of Alaves' last five away matches, which is the away context that mirrors Sunday's fixture from Osasuna's perspective as the travelling side. Alaves' home BTTS rate over ten games is 70 per cent. The head-to-head has produced BTTS in half of two meetings, with the most recent ending 2-2. And Osasuna, even in their dreadful away run, have been involved in matches where both teams score 60 per cent of the time.

What to Watch

Alaves will want to assert themselves early and use the home crowd at Mendizorroza. Their ability to create volume, 14 shots per game in away matches recently, suggests the intent is there. Whether they can be more clinical than their xG numbers have occasionally suggested will be one thread worth watching.

For Osasuna, the real question is whether they can find any defensive structure that stops the bleeding. Conceding ten goals in five matches on the road is not a run that corrects itself overnight. But they do carry possession, averaging 51 per cent away from home, and they create chances even if they do not convert them. A side with that profile rarely stays scoreless for 90 minutes.

Sunday afternoon in Vitoria-Gasteiz should be an open, goal-friendly match. Alaves look the better-placed side to collect three points. The data says trust the goals.