Can Anyone Stop Viking? Aalesund Face the Eliteserien's Runaway Leaders
Rafael Mbeki ·
Right. Let's just say what everyone is thinking. Viking are absolutely flying right now and Aalesund have picked about the worst possible time to host them.
Sunday's 17:15 kick-off at Aalesund's ground is about as tricky a home fixture as you can draw. Viking sit top of the Norwegian Eliteserien with 27 points from just ten games. Nine wins. One loss. A goal difference of plus nineteen. They are not messing about up there in Stavanger, mate.
Aalesund, meanwhile, are 13th. Two wins, five draws, four losses. They're not cut adrift yet but they're definitely in that uncomfortable bit of the table where you start doing the maths every week. Not a great headspace to be welcoming the league leaders.
Viking's Form is Genuinely Ridiculous
Look at the fixtures. Look at what Viking have done over their last ten games. Nine wins. Twenty-nine goals scored. Ten conceded. That is not a team in a bit of form, that is a team that has figured something out and is not letting anyone else in on the secret.
Their last five games overall? Five wins from five. Fifteen goals scored, five conceded. Their away form over the last five is four wins from five, only dropping points in one game. They travel well. They score goals. They are the kind of side that makes you wonder how any team in this league is supposed to deal with them right now.
Even with two players out injured, including one long-term absentee, Viking have not slowed down. You trust the process, as they say... except in this case the process is clearly working and nobody is being ironic about it.
I actually looked at the numbers for once and their scoring rate over the last ten games averages nearly three goals per game. Three. Per game. Connor would tell me to calm down. He'd be wrong.
Aalesund at Home: The Goal Fest Nobody Asked For
Here is the thing about Aalesund that both encourages and terrifies me in equal measure. They score goals. Fifteen in eleven league games is not nothing. In their last five home games they have scored nine times. They turn up offensively. They have a go.
The problem? They also concede. A lot. Their home BTTS percentage over the last five games is one hundred percent. Every single home game has ended with both teams scoring. Every. Single. One. Zero clean sheets at home all season. Not one.
Their possession average at home is sitting around 24 percent according to the data. Twenty-four. That is a side that is set up to absorb pressure and hit on the break, basically inviting teams to come at them. Against most teams in this league, that might be a reasonable approach. Against Viking right now? That is a lot of faith to place in a back line that has let in twenty goals in eleven games overall.
Three long-term or major injury absences in the Aalesund squad is not helping either. Losing bodies when you are already stretched defensively is the last thing you need heading into a game like this.
The BTTS Merchant in Me is Absolutely Fizzing
Look. I said Aalesund score goals. I said they concede goals. I said Viking score goals. The BTTS market for this one is basically doing me a personal favour by existing.
Aalesund's home BTTS rate is 100 percent over the last five. Viking's overall BTTS rate over the last ten is 60 percent, which sounds lower but remember they have kept clean sheets in four of their last ten, meaning when they do concede it tends to be in games where they are also scoring freely.
The over 2.5 goals market also looks tasty. Aalesund's home games have gone over 2.5 in 80 percent of their last five. Viking's last ten overall have gone over 2.5 in 80 percent of cases. The scenes if this ends 0-0 would be something to behold. I refuse to believe it ends 0-0.
I'm going big on this: BTTS and over 2.5 goals feels like the smart play here. Don't @ me.
Can Aalesund Actually Cause an Upset?
Honestly? It would be a massive shock. But football is football and home advantage is real, even in Norway on a Sunday afternoon in July.
Aalesund's recent overall form has not been terrible. Their last five games across all contexts show two wins, two draws, one loss. There is something there. They are not a complete rabble. They just happen to be playing the best team in the country right now while missing players and leaking goals like a sieve.
The Verdict
Viking to win. It would take something special for Aalesund to hold them off, especially at home where Aalesund's defensive record has been genuinely dire. Viking are scoring goals for fun, they travel well, and they have the kind of momentum that is very hard to stop.
But Aalesund will score. They always seem to find a way to get on the scoresheet, and Viking do not always shut up shop. Back to the drawing board if this ends in a boring one-nil. But I do not reckon it will. There are goals in this game. Big ones. Possibly chaotic ones.
Viking win, both teams score, multiple goals. That is the call. Enjoy the madness.