FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin
BundesligaFull time · 10 May 2026
Lost · xG 1.47WLWLDLast 5
Full time
1 — 3
90+4'
WWDLLLast 5
PRESSURE INDEX · FINAL▲ Union Berlin · last goal · 90'
60
40
FSV Mainz 05 · 1.47 xG2.98 xG · Union Berlin
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FSV Mainz 05 1 Union Berlin 3, full time in the Bundesliga. Our model's pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals, which landed. Before this meeting the sides had met once in the fixtures we hold, and it was drawn.
Informational only, not betting advice. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 8020 133.
FSV Mainz 05 1–3 Union Berlin
Union Berlin took all three points at Mainz with a convincing 3-1 victory, and while the scoreline surprised many, the underlying structure of this Bundesliga campaign made it far less of a shock than the market implied.
Our pick
FSV Mainz 05 to win
Result
1:3FSV Mainz 05 v Union Berlin
Union Berlin won 3-1 away at FSV Mainz 05.
4 goals took the match over the 2.5 line.
The chances backed the result: FSV Mainz 05 1.47 to Union Berlin 2.98 on expected goals.
Assist: Aljoscha Kemlein
Union Berlin took all three points at Mainz with a convincing 3-1 victory, and while the scoreline surprised many, the underlying structure of this Bundesliga campaign made it far less of a shock than the market implied.
Read full report →
Kacper PotulskiAndrej Ilic
Woo-yeong Jeong
Phillip Tietz
András Schäfer
Derrick Köhn
Nikolas Veratschnig
Jae-sung LeeJae-sung LeeDerrick Köhn
Armindo Sieb
Josip Juranovic
Nelson Weiper
Tim Skarke
Oliver BurkeJosip Juranovic+1 more event without full detail from the data feed.
Expected Goals (xG)
How the result affects the Bundesliga standings.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schalke 04 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Werder Bremen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | FC Augsburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Bayern München | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The match finished 1-3 to Union Berlin.
Union Berlin won the match 3-1.
The match took place on Sunday, 10 May 2026.
Union Berlin won 3-1 at Mainz on Sunday, overturning our model's 52% pick for a Mainz victory. The visitors dominated despite their recent form slump; Mainz had won three of their last five but could not sustain that momentum at the MEWA ARENA. Both sides had shown a 60% both-teams-to-score rate in recent matches, and that pattern held as the match produced goals at both ends. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Union Berlin's victory lifted them temporarily but their underlying form remains fragile; two wins in five matches keeps them in relegation danger at position 12. Mainz's home defeat deepens concerns about inconsistency at the Opel Arena. The three-goal margin suggests a significant performance gap on the day. Both sides remain clustered in the lower half, with neither capable of sustained momentum; the result shifts little in the broader title race but reinforces mid-table instability.
SportSignals uses automated analysis with editorial oversight. Check current team news and market prices before relying on this context.
FSV Mainz 05 v Union Berlin · Bundesliga ·
More from this competition: Bundesliga predictions · Bundesliga odds
Edge · SportSignals+
Closing-line value and settled EV for every pick in this match.
Open SportSignals+Correct means the selection settled as won on the 90-minute result. Every selection counted here was recorded before kickoff. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
