Al-Qadsiah's Stunning Form Run Makes Them Dangerous Visitors to Ittihad
Connor Maguire ·
Last updated: 19 May 2026. Two days out from this Saudi Pro League fixture and the picture is clearer than it was a week ago. Al Ittihad sit fifth in the table. Al-Qadsiah sit fourth. One of these clubs will close the gap on third place. The other will drift. That is what is at stake on Thursday evening.
The Table Does Not Lie
Al Ittihad have 55 points from 33 games. 16 wins, 7 draws, 10 defeats. That is a fifth-place record and nothing more. The thing is, this club came into the season with expectations that do not match that points tally. A goal difference of plus 11 tells you everything. They are not dominating games. They are scraping through some and losing others they should not be losing.
Al-Qadsiah are a different story. Fourth place, 74 points, 22 wins and only three defeats all season. They have scored 78 goals. They have conceded 33. That is a side that competes. That is a side with desire and standards that are being met week after week.
Form Coming Into Thursday
Al Ittihad's last ten overall reads LWWDWLLWWL. Three wins on the spin at one point, then two losses. There is no consistency there. At home in the last ten, the record is four wins, one draw, two defeats with a form string of WDLLWWW. The most recent home results include back-to-back losses. Their home momentum slope is negative. That tells you confidence is not exactly sky high at the King Abdullah Sports City right now.
Listen, a 43-goal tally conceded in 33 home league games is not the record of a defensively solid unit. Their last five at home reads WDLLW. Two defeats sandwiched around a draw. That is not a platform you build on. That is a team searching for something they have not found yet.
Al-Qadsiah arrive with four wins from their last five games overall. WWWWD. Thirteen goals scored, four conceded in that run. They are scoring freely and keeping it tight when it matters. Their away form in the last five reads WWDDL, which is solid enough. Two wins, two draws, one defeat on the road. Their momentum slope away from home is 0.8. That is the highest number in this entire data set. They are building. They are moving in the right direction.
Goals Are Coming in This One
Both teams to score has landed in 60 per cent of Al Ittihad's last ten games and 80 per cent of Al-Qadsiah's last ten. Over 2.5 goals has come in at 60 per cent and 70 per cent respectively. These are not defensive teams. Al Ittihad have conceded 16 goals in their last ten overall. Al-Qadsiah have scored 21 in theirs.
The thing is, clean sheets are rare in this fixture context. Al Ittihad have kept clean sheets in roughly 43 per cent of their home games recently, but they have also conceded nine goals in their last five at home. Al-Qadsiah have kept clean sheets in just 20 per cent of their away games. Both sets of defenders have questions to answer. This game has goals in it. Back that with your eyes, not a spreadsheet.
Injury Situation
Both clubs are carrying absentees into Thursday. Al Ittihad have two players out, one a long-term injury with no return date set since early January, the other a major injury sustained in March with an expected return not until the end of December. Two significant absences and one of them has been missing for the best part of five months. That hurts any squad.
Al-Qadsiah are no different. Three players are currently unavailable. One has been out since May last year, a long-term absence with no return date. A second has been out since January, again long-term. The third suffered a major injury in March and will not be back until the end of the year. Three players missing, two of them for the entire back half of the season. Al-Qadsiah have posted those impressive recent results without them. That speaks to squad depth and, more importantly, to attitude from the players who have stepped in.
The Gap in Class on Current Form
This is where I will be blunt. Al Ittihad are 19 points behind Al-Qadsiah in the table. That is not a small gap. That is a significant difference in standards over the course of a season. Ittihad have lost ten league games. Qadsiah have lost three. One of these clubs has been accountable and consistent. The other has not.
The home advantage matters. It always does. But it does not cover a 19-point gap in quality over 33 matchdays. Al-Qadsiah are the better team right now. Full stop. Their form says it, their goals scored say it, and their points tally says it. The desire and accountability they have shown week in, week out puts them in a position to go to a fifth-place club and take something from this game.
The Call
The model gives Al-Qadsiah a 41 per cent win probability. That is significant for a side travelling away from home. Both teams to score is flagged at 63 per cent and over 2.5 goals at 61 per cent. I do not need a model to tell me this game will have goals. The form data is screaming it.
My selection is both teams to score. Al Ittihad will threaten. They are at home, they have quality, and they will not roll over. But they concede. They have been conceding all season. Al-Qadsiah score goals, they carry real momentum, and three long-term absentees have not stopped them winning four of their last five. This game ends with both sides finding the net. End of.