Double Chance: What It Means in Betting
Double chance is a football betting market that covers two of the three possible match outcomes in a single bet. It is a lower-risk alternative to the standard 1X2 market, offering a higher probability of winning in exchange for shorter odds.
The Three Double Chance Options
Every double chance market offers three selections:
- 1X = Home win or draw. You win if the home team wins or if the match finishes level. You lose only if the away team wins.
- X2 = Draw or away win. You win if the match is drawn or the away team wins. You lose only if the home team wins.
- 12 = Home win or away win. You win if either team wins. You lose only if the match ends in a draw.
Each option eliminates exactly one of the three possible results. This means you are essentially betting against a single outcome rather than for one.
How Odds Compare to the 1X2 Market
Because double chance covers two outcomes, the odds are significantly shorter than the corresponding 1X2 selections. Consider a match between Chelsea (home) and West Ham (away) with the following 1X2 odds:
- Chelsea (1): 1.75
- Draw (X): 3.80
- West Ham (2): 4.80
The approximate double chance odds might be:
- 1X (Chelsea or draw): 1.18
- X2 (Draw or West Ham): 2.00
- 12 (Chelsea or West Ham): 1.28
The 1X selection is very short because Chelsea are already favourites, and adding the draw makes the combined probability quite high. The X2 selection offers the best price because it combines the two less likely outcomes.
When Double Chance Provides Useful Cover
Double chance is most commonly used in situations where:
Strong favourite but draw risk. If Arsenal are playing at home against a defensive side like Crystal Palace, you might be confident Arsenal will not lose but worried about a stubborn 0-0 or 1-1. Backing 1X covers both a win and a draw.
Backing an underdog with a safety net. If you fancy Leicester to cause an upset away to Manchester United, the X2 option means you still win if Leicester draw. This gives you exposure to the underdog at lower risk.
Accumulator building. Double chance selections can be included in accumulators to add legs with a higher probability of landing. While each individual selection has shorter odds, combining several can still produce a meaningful return.
A Practical Example
Wolves are playing at home to Bournemouth in a mid-table Premier League fixture. The 1X2 odds are:
- Wolves (1): 2.30
- Draw (X): 3.20
- Bournemouth (2): 3.30
You believe Wolves are the better side at home and that a Bournemouth win is unlikely, but the draw feels plausible given Wolves' tendency to produce tight matches.
The 1X double chance is offered at 1.38. This means:
- If Wolves win 2-1, you win
- If the match finishes 1-1, you win
- If Bournemouth win 0-1, you lose
Your strike rate will be higher with double chance, but the profit per winning bet is lower. Over time, the question is whether the improved strike rate justifies the reduced odds.
Double Chance vs Draw No Bet
Double chance 1X and draw no bet (DNB) on the home side are similar but not identical:
- 1X double chance pays out on both a home win and a draw
- Draw no bet pays out on a home win and refunds your stake on a draw
The difference is subtle but important. With 1X, you win the same amount regardless of whether the result is a home win or draw. With DNB, a draw returns your stake but generates no profit. DNB odds are therefore slightly higher than the 1X equivalent because the draw outcome returns less.
Is Double Chance Good Value?
Whether double chance offers genuine value depends on the same principles as any market. The key question is always whether the bookmaker's implied probability is lower than the true combined probability of the two outcomes.
Simply choosing double chance because it feels safer is not, by itself, a sound strategy. The reduced risk comes at the cost of reduced odds, and the bookmaker's margin still applies. Value can exist in double chance markets, but it requires the same analytical approach as any other bet.
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