Double Chance: What It Means in Betting

The Three Double Chance Options

Every double chance market offers three selections:

• 1X = Home win or draw. You win if the home team wins or if the match finishes level. You lose only if the away team wins.
• X2 = Draw or away win. You win if the match is drawn or the away team wins. You lose only if the home team wins.
• 12 = Home win or away win. You win if either team wins. You lose only if the match ends in a draw.

Each option eliminates exactly one of the three possible results. This means you are essentially betting against a single outcome rather than for one.

How Odds Compare to the 1X2 Market

Because the outcomes in a regulation-time 1X2 market are mutually exclusive, their probabilities can be added. Decimal prices themselves cannot. Consider these illustrative 1X2 prices:

• Home (1): 2.30
• Draw (X): 3.20
• Away (2): 3.30

Their raw implied probabilities are 43.48%, 31.25%, and 30.30%, which total 105.03% before any attempt to remove margin. A simple proportional normalization produces approximately:

• Home: 41.40%
• Draw: 29.75%
• Away: 28.85%

Under that simplified method, the estimated 1X probability is 41.40% + 29.75% = 71.15%, corresponding to fair decimal odds of about 1 / 0.7115 = 1.41. This is an illustrative de-margining method, not proof of the true probability. A directly quoted double chance market can use different margin and pricing.

What Double Chance Changes

Double chance changes which score outcomes settle as winners; it does not reduce the amount staked. A 10 unit 1X bet still loses 10 units when the away side wins. The probability of settlement as a winner is higher than for either covered result alone, but the price compensates by being shorter.

Suppose an independent forecast assigns 42% to home, 30% to draw, and 28% to away. It assigns 72% to 1X. The fair price under those assumptions is 1 / 0.72 = 1.39. A quote of 1.33 has a raw break-even conversion of 75.19%, so it would be too short under this forecast. A quote is not attractive merely because it wins under more score outcomes.

Double Chance vs Draw No Bet

Double chance 1X and draw no bet (DNB) on the home side are similar but not identical:

• 1X double chance pays out on both a home win and a draw
• Draw no bet pays out on a home win and refunds your stake on a draw

With 1X, the same accepted price applies whether the home side wins or draws. With home Draw No Bet, a home win pays while a draw ordinarily returns the stake. DNB is therefore a different payoff, not another label for 1X. Compare expected net returns across all three outcomes and check the operator's settlement wording.

Is Double Chance Good Value?

Whether double chance offers genuine value depends on the same principles as any market. The key question is always whether the bookmaker's implied probability is lower than the true combined probability of the two outcomes.

Calling double chance "safer" can obscure the decision. It covers more result categories, but the stake remains at risk and the shorter quote can still be poor. Record a probability for each mutually exclusive result, add the two covered probabilities, compare that sum with the quote's raw break-even probability, and allow for uncertainty in the forecast.

Settlement can also change the answer. Confirm whether the market is regulation time only, whether extra time is excluded, and how an abandoned match is handled. DraftKings' current soccer rules are one operator example; the rules attached to the accepted bet remain controlling (DraftKings soccer rules).

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Related resources

Read 1X2 Market: What It Means in Betting for the three underlying results, or compare the refund payoff in Draw No Bet: What It Means in Betting.

Continue learning

• Next guide: Draw No Bet
• Related guide: Dutching in Betting
• Go deeper: Double Chance Betting

Assumptions and limitations

DraftKings' terminology and soccer rules provide current US operator examples, not universal definitions. The worked probabilities are illustrative, and proportional margin removal is only one estimation method. It does not recover a known true probability or make a double-chance quote good value.