EFL Championship
Portsmouth
DerbyHome38%
Draw27%
Away35%
PortsmouthLDWWD
DerbyLWLLL
Last 5 completed matchesFootball predictions
Football Value Picks and Tips This Week
A qualified shortlist of football value predictions, with model probability, supporting markets and dated Match Centre analysis for every covered fixture.
- Published predictions
- 20
- Leagues covered
- 13
- Current view
- Value picks
Model probability54%
- 1 Probability
- 2 Fair price
- 3 Qualified tip
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Quick answer
How to use today’s football value predictions
Review 20 publication-qualified model selections in their original order. Each Team A v Team B link opens the full Match Centre prediction, tip status and supporting analysis. Current odds only appear when a licensed regional quote is available.
- Prediction
- What the model rates most likely
- Edge
- Probability compared with a current price
- Tip
- A selection that passes publishing checks
Qualified shortlist
Featured football value predictions
PortsmouthDerbyEFL Championship
Swansea
WatfordHome42%
Draw28%
Away30%
SwanseaL
WatfordDLLLL
Last 5 completed matchesFull shortlist
Football value picks by league
Public qualification evidence
From model probability to qualified tip
The page records the model probability and calculated fair price. A current eligible quote is then checked for your region; the exact edge, movement and alert tools remain in Plus.
- 1
Model probability54%
- 2
Calculated fair price1.84
- 3
Eligible price checkPrivate and current
- 1
Model probability38%
- 2
Calculated fair price2.61
- 3
Eligible price checkPrivate and current
- 1
Model probability45%
- 2
Calculated fair price2.22
- 3
Eligible price checkPrivate and current
How to read this page
Predictions, tips and match analysis
A prediction is the outcome the model rates most likely. A tip is only published when additional qualification checks pass. Open any Team A v Team B prediction to review its dated evidence, supporting markets and tip status in Match Centre.
Glossary
- Model pick
- The outcome the SportSignals model assigns the highest probability for a given match.
- Value pick
- An outcome where the best UKGC bookmaker price gives an implied probability lower than the model's estimate. We label a value pick when the edge is at least 3 percentage points.
- Edge (pp)
- The percentage-point gap between the model probability and the bookmaker's implied probability. Higher edge means the market is more out of line with the model.
- Best price
- The highest decimal odds we found across UKGC-licensed bookmakers at the moment the page was rendered.
- Implied probability
- The probability implied by a decimal odds price. Computed as 1 divided by the decimal odds.
Frequently asked questions
What is a value pick?
A value pick is an outcome where an eligible licensed bookmaker price implies a lower probability than the model's estimate, by at least 3 percentage points. The gap is the edge, in percentage points (pp); a current regional comparison loads outside the shared page.
How are value picks found?
The SportSignals model prices every covered fixture from a deep football dataset, layered with our own analysis. The shared page keeps the qualified model order but contains no current operator data. After country resolution, a private, uncached check may show up to 20 current regional price and value rows.
Do value picks win more often?
A value pick is about price, not certainty: many value picks are outsiders that lose more often than they win. The claim being made is that the price is longer than the probability justifies, which is only measurable across the settled record. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
How are current prices checked?
The shared page stores no bookmaker prices. A private, uncached request checks up to 20 current regional price rows after country resolution. A price can move after it is shown, so the operator's live price is the one that counts.
18+. Gamble responsibly. Predictions and value picks are informational context produced by a statistical model. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Free, confidential help: Free, confidential help: GambleAware or 0808 8020 133.