Last updated 17 May 2026. Right, it is Sunday night football in MLS and we have got ourselves a proper one here. Sporting KC host New York Red Bulls on 24 May, kick-off at half past midnight UTC, and the model has already made its feelings known. New York RB are the pick, 43.3% probability according to the SportMonks machine, and honestly... I am not here to argue with it this week.

Where Both Teams Sit in the Table

Look, the standings data we have here covers the wider MLS picture and I want to give you the honest version of what it is telling us. There are teams running hot at the top of both conferences, plenty of goals flying around the league, and the general vibe of MLS 2025 is very much... chaotic good. Goals everywhere. Defences optional. Perfect conditions for a BTTS merchant like me.

What jumps out across the league is how many goals are being scored. The top teams are putting up 26, 29, 30 goals in just 12 or 13 games. That is not a coincidence. That is the tempo of this league right now. And New York RB have been part of that story. When you are travelling across the country for a fixture like this, you want a team that can score on the road, and the Red Bulls have shown that quality this season.

The Model Says New York RB, But How Confident Should We Be?

Honestly, 43.3% is not a ringing endorsement. Let me be straight with you. That is a plurality, not a certainty. The model gives New York RB the edge but this is still a proper coin-flip territory match with a home side who will fancy themselves at Children's Mercy Park. Sporting KC fans are loud, the atmosphere is real, and home advantage in MLS is not nothing.

But here is the thing. A 43% probability on an away win, when the implied probability from the market would typically sit lower than that for a road team, is where value lives. That is the gap. That is why the signal exists. The model reckons New York RB are being underestimated slightly, and you know what, I reckon there is something to that.

The confidence rating from the signal is 43 out of 100. So yes, this is firmly in the "educated guess with receipts" category rather than a banker. File accordingly.

BTTS Is the Real Story Here

Look at the fixtures across this MLS season and goals are absolutely everywhere. The model clocks a 55% chance of both teams scoring in this one, and that is the number I keep coming back to. Fifty-five percent. That is more than half the time, mate.

Think about what we know. New York RB travel with attacking intent. Sporting KC at home will push forward. The league as a whole is in a high-scoring moment right now. You add all that up and BTTS at decent odds is genuinely interesting. I am not saying it is a certainty. Nothing in football is a certainty, ask anyone who has backed a "nailed on" goalkeeper clean sheet and watched a last-minute own goal float in. But 55% is a proper edge and it is where I am starting my thinking for the acca.

Team News and Injuries

Right, I have to be upfront here. The injury data for this fixture is currently clean, meaning nothing has been flagged in the system yet. We are seven days out, so that will change. Check back as we get closer to kick-off because team news at this point in the week is still developing. No suspensions have been flagged either. So for now, assume both sides are close to full strength and adjust when the confirmed lineups and injury updates come through later in the week.

This is the 7-day-out refresh, so consider this your early intelligence briefing. The full picture will sharpen up by Friday.

The Jay Thompson Acca Corner

You knew this was coming. I am going big on this as part of a Sunday night MLS leg. New York RB to win is the signal pick and I respect the model enough to include it, but I am pairing it with BTTS given that 55% probability. A New York RB win and both teams to score combined is a tasty little correct-score-adjacent play that gets my pulse going.

If you want the cleaner single bet, BTTS is probably the more comfortable home given how goals are flowing across this league right now. The away win alone at 43% model probability is value if the bookies have it shorter than that, but without live odds confirmed in the data yet, I cannot tell you exactly what price you are getting. You heard it here first though: New York RB and goals. That is the story of this game.

My Saturday Special this week is still being constructed but this match is firmly in the conversation for the Sunday night add-on. Don't @ me when it lands. Or when it doesn't. Back to the drawing board is a lifestyle at this point.

The Verdict

New York RB are a slight model favourite on the road here and the 55% BTTS probability gives this game a clear identity. This is not a cagey, low-block defensive masterclass. This is two teams who can score, playing in a league where goals are the order of the day, and a model that fancies the away side to edge it.

Sporting KC at home will not roll over. They never do. But if New York RB bring their travelling A-game to Kansas City on Sunday night, the model might just be onto something. And when the model and the vibes agree... you have to at least consider it.

Check back for injury updates, confirmed lineups, and any late team news as we get into the business end of the week. The picture gets a lot clearer by Thursday or Friday and I will have the full breakdown ready for you then.