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A full prediction for every League One fixture, with the price our model thinks is best.
Accuracy
66.9%
League One settled picks
Settled
1,445
picks tracked
Upcoming
12
in next 7 days
Soonest
Sat 2 May, 15:00
next kickoff
League One is where the public price meets its toughest test of the week. Bookmaker liquidity drops sharply below the Championship, lines move on smaller volumes, and individual results swing standings further than in the higher tiers. That same dynamic is where our model finds the largest pre-match edges, particularly on totals and double-chance markets. We write a per-match pick for every League One fixture across the full-time result, both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals, and update the inputs every three hours. Set-piece sides over-perform their underlying chances at the third-tier level, which we factor into the totals read for clubs that drill set-piece routines hard, and we reduce the home advantage premium for clubs whose travelling support is unusually strong relative to the home crowd they would otherwise expect. Squad depth varies far more across League One than in the Championship, so a single starter going down moves the line meaningfully and our injury impact read carries heavier weight than it does at higher tiers. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
11W · 19L · 37% strike rate
League One picks lean on five inputs. First, a five-game form window split between home and away. Second, our expected-goals read, which produces unusually large signals at the third-tier level because shot-volume sides can run hot or cold for weeks at a time. Third, an injury impact score that runs heavier than in the Championship because squad depth is thinner. Fourth, a set-piece stats read; League One sides drill set-piece routines harder than higher-tier sides, so the totals read picks up the goals premium for clubs that score from set plays at an above-mean rate. Fifth, a travel-load read that penalises long midweek round trips, particularly for sides on Saturday-Tuesday-Saturday cycles.
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All predictions and analysis on this page are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as betting advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Odds displayed are sourced from third-party bookmakers and are subject to change. SportSignals may receive commission from bookmaker links on this page.