Right. Thursday night football in Portland. Late kick-off. Bit of a strange one on paper but trust me, the numbers on this game are genuinely fascinating. Dallas are rolling into Providence Park on the back of some absolutely filthy away form, and Portland... well, Portland at home are a completely different animal to Portland everywhere else. Buckle up.

Where Portland Are At

Look, I'm not going to dress this up. Portland Timbers are 13th in their conference, 14 points from 14 games. That is not where you want to be. Four wins, two draws, eight losses. The overall form over the last five games reads LLDWL and there is a negative momentum slope on them that even I can understand without needing a spreadsheet explained to me. Things have not been great on the road either. Away from home in their last five, they have won once, drawn once, and lost three. They are shipping nine goals in those five away fixtures and keeping zero clean sheets. Zero. That is not a typo.

But here is the thing. Here is the bit that matters for Thursday night. At home? Portland are a proper handful. In their last five home games they have gone LWWDW. Three wins, a draw, one loss. They have scored fourteen goals at home in that run and only conceded six. Fourteen. That is not a team that is broken at home, that is a team that genuinely turns up when they are in front of their own supporters. The BTTS percentage at home sits at 80 percent and over 2.5 goals comes in at 80 percent as well. So if Portland can find that home version of themselves on Thursday, this is going to be a lively evening.

Dallas and That Away Record Though

Honestly, Dallas away from home right now is one of the better stories in MLS. Look at the fixtures, look at the away form. In their last five away games they have gone WWWLW. Four wins from five on the road. They have scored twelve goals and only conceded five in those games. Forty percent clean sheet rate away from home. That is genuinely impressive stuff for a side sitting fourth in their conference.

Overall in their last five games across all competitions, Dallas have gone WWLWW. Four wins from five. Compare that to Portland's LLDWL over the same period and the momentum is clearly with the visitors heading into this one. Their last ten away games tell the same story too. Four wins from five in that context as well, with that positive momentum slope of 0.3 creeping upwards. Dallas away are in form and they know how to travel.

Now. Here is where it gets interesting. Dallas at home this season have been much more inconsistent. Their last five home games read LWLDD. One win, two draws, two losses. They do not bully teams at their own ground anywhere near as effectively as they do on the road. Which is a weird quirk but it is what it is. This Dallas side seems to genuinely relish being the away team. Something about going somewhere and nicking a result suits them.

The Goals Are Coming. They Have To Be.

Right, I actually looked at the numbers for once and I am going to make the case that goals are basically inevitable here. Portland at home have an 80 percent BTTS rate and an 80 percent over 2.5 goals rate in their last five home games. Dallas overall in their last five have an 80 percent BTTS rate and an 80 percent over 2.5 goals rate as well. Both of these sides score. Both of these sides concede. Neither of them keeps many clean sheets.

Portland have conceded 28 goals in 14 league games this season. That is two goals per game on average. Dallas have scored 30 goals in 15 games. They find the net. Portland at home have scored 14 in five. They find the net too. The xG stuff, and yes I know I am supposed to mock it and I will in a moment, basically confirms what the eye test tells you. These sides both want to play forward. The xG figures we do have for Portland at home show they are creating plenty, so presumably the lads with the expected goals calculator, bless them and their spreadsheets, would agree this should be an open game.

Look at the fixtures context. Portland are at home, where they are genuinely dangerous. Dallas are travelling, which is where they are genuinely dangerous. Something has to give. My reckon is it gives repeatedly in both directions.

What This Game Means in the Table

Portland are 13th on 14 points. They need wins. They desperately need wins. A loss here would be another kick in the teeth for a side that is already looking over their shoulder. The home form is their lifeline and Thursday is a chance to grab three points in front of their own supporters. The pressure is on them to perform.

Dallas sit fourth on 25 points from 15 games. They are in a solid position and this is a game they would back themselves to get something from given how well they have been travelling. A win here keeps them in the hunt for a higher seed. A draw is not the end of the world for them. A loss would sting but would not derail their season.

The Jay Thompson Call

I'm going big on this. Dallas are the better team on current form, no question. Their away record is frightening. But Portland at home are not the same side you see on the road and I cannot just ignore fourteen goals in five home games. This feels like a game where both teams get on the scoresheet and it ends up being a proper spectacle.

For the acca lovers, BTTS is the standout pick in this one. Both sides are involved in high-scoring games constantly. The over 2.5 goals market makes a lot of sense as well. If you are feeling brave, and I always am, correct score punts in the 2-2 or 2-1 Dallas range have some fun value given what both sets of stats are telling us.

Dallas to nick it on the road is my lean for the result. But Portland will score. You heard it here first. Don't @ me.