Last updated Sunday 10 May 2026, match day. This is the final Old Firm fixture of the 2025/26 Scottish Premiership season, and the context could not be more one-sided if you tried to engineer it. Celtic sit top of the table with 76 points from 35 games, which at a win ratio of just under 66 percent represents a genuinely dominant campaign. Rangers, by contrast, have accumulated 43 points from the same number of games, with a goal difference of minus nine that tells you everything about the structural gap between these two sides right now. This is not a rivalry of equals at this particular moment in time, and the data reflects that clearly.

Where Celtic Stand

Celtic's season in numbers is worth sitting with for a moment. Twenty-three wins, seven draws, five defeats, 62 goals scored, 30 conceded. That goals against figure is the interesting thing here, because it speaks to a defensive structure that has been genuinely difficult to break down over the course of the campaign. A goal difference of plus 32 from 35 games is the kind of return that is not built on lucky results or soft opposition. It reflects consistent positional discipline in build-up phases, which means opponents rarely get to press Celtic in dangerous areas without being bypassed.

Sixty-two goals for is also a number that tells you Celtic are not a team that sits on leads. They continue to seek progressive ball movement even when winning, which means matches involving Celtic tend to stay open, and that has direct implications for the totals market.

Rangers' Season in Context

Ten wins, thirteen draws, twelve defeats. That draw count is the figure I keep returning to when I look at Rangers this season. Thirteen draws from 35 games suggests a team that competes for a period but cannot consistently convert pressure into victories. The underlying problem is at the other end: 57 goals conceded, which at 1.63 per game is a rate that is simply unsustainable for a club with Rangers' ambitions. Their 48 goals scored is respectable enough in isolation, but when your defensive structure is conceding at that volume, the balance sheet does not add up.

What the data actually shows is a Rangers side that scores with some regularity but cannot maintain defensive shape over 90 minutes, which means they are exactly the kind of opponent that makes a home side's attacking numbers look very good indeed.

The Signals and Where the Value Sits

Three signals have been generated for this fixture, and I want to work through each one honestly rather than just endorsing all of them because they point in the same direction.

The Celtic win at 2.20 with bwin carries a model probability of 52.4 percent against an implied probability of 45.5 percent. That is an edge of 6.9 percent, which in match result markets is meaningful. The interesting thing is that 52 percent is not a huge probability in absolute terms, which reflects the reality that Old Firm games do compress outcomes regardless of form differentials. Rangers will almost certainly set up to be compact and hit on the transition, and that structure can generate results even against superior sides. The Celtic win signal has value, but I would frame the confidence level as moderate rather than strong.

The Over 2.5 goals at 1.57 with bet365 is where I feel more comfortable. The model gives this a 66 percent probability against the market's implied 63.7 percent. That edge of 2.3 percent is smaller, but the reasoning is cleaner. Celtic's attacking output across the season, combined with Rangers' defensive record of 57 goals conceded, creates a structural basis for goals rather than just a feeling that the game will be open. Over 2.5 goals has landed in the majority of Celtic's home games this season, and the sample size here is large enough to take seriously. At 1.57 the odds are not generous, but the direction of value is correct.

The BTTS Yes at 1.50 is where I pump the brakes slightly. The model rates it at 65.2 percent and the market implies 66.7 percent, which means there is actually a small negative edge of 1.5 percent. The signal has been published, but I would not be placing this one. Negative edge is negative edge, regardless of how intuitive it feels. Rangers do score, yes. But at 1.50 the market has already priced that in and then some. This is a market to leave alone.

Structural Considerations for Match Day

Celtic at home in a game they are heavily favoured to win creates a particular tactical dynamic that is worth understanding. The home side will look to dominate possession in the build-up phase and use wide areas to drag Rangers' defensive shape out of position. The question is whether Rangers sit deep and look to absorb pressure before transitioning, or whether they try to press Celtic higher up the pitch. Given their points total and their draw-heavy record, the probability is that they adopt a more conservative initial structure, which often means the first goal has a disproportionate effect on how the second half unfolds.

If Celtic score first, Rangers will be forced to commit more men forward, which opens space on the transition. That is precisely the scenario in which Celtic's attacking shape becomes most dangerous, because it is when they have room to run into rather than having to break down a low block.

Confirmed Lineups and Injuries

The data sheet does not contain confirmed lineups or injury information for this fixture as of the time of writing. I will not speculate on personnel. If lineups are confirmed before kick-off, update your reading of the Celtic win and Over 2.5 signals accordingly, particularly if either side is missing key attacking or defensive players.

Final Odds Snapshot

Celtic win: 2.20 (bwin). Draw no bet Celtic: 1.53 (bet365). Over 2.5 goals: 1.57 (bet365). BTTS Yes: 1.50 (bet365). Rangers BTTS No: 2.50 (bet365).

The Over 2.5 goals market is the pick I feel most settled on given the structural evidence across the full season. The Celtic win at 2.20 carries genuine model value and deserves consideration, but treat it as a secondary play rather than the foundation of your approach to this fixture.