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Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid Prediction, Odds & Tips

Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid Prediction and Tips

UEFA Champions League
Full TimeTuesday, 5 May 2026
Our take

Arsenal beat Atletico Madrid 1-0 at Emirates Stadium in the Champions League. Our model backed an Arsenal win at 60% probability, and the pick landed. Arsenal's recent form had been patchy, while Atletico arrived in inconsistent shape themselves. The visitors managed little in attack; neither side created much, but Arsenal's single goal proved decisive in a tight contest. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

Our AI analyses form, head-to-head records, squad news and odds to provide data-driven predictions for Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid. All tips are for informational purposes only and do not constitute betting advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You must be 18 or over to gamble. Please gamble responsibly. For help, visit GambleAware.

Our pick

Arsenal to win

60%Won

Result

Arsenal1:0Atletico Madrid

Arsenal v Atletico Madrid

Our model called Arsenal to win at 60%. Arsenal 1-0 Atletico Madrid. Pick landed.

AI Prediction Result

Arsenal to winWon ✓
Probability
59.7%
Home
59.7%
Draw
22.6%
Away
17.8%

18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 802 0133.

Expected goals (xG)

Match xG total 2.25

Arsenal1.32
Atletico Madrid0.93
Arsenal

Arsenal

W W W W W500LBTTS 20%

Arsenal secured a 1-0 victory at home, recording their second win over Atletico Madrid this season. The clean sheet marked a significant defensive improvement after conceding 2 goals in their previous 5 matches. Despite mixed recent form, the Gunners converted limited chances efficiently; our model assessed their shot quality as clinical. League leaders maintained their position with a crucial European result.

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid

L W W L W302LBTTS 40%

Atletico Madrid suffered defeat in their second meeting with Arsenal this campaign, failing to break down a resolute home defence. The visitors managed 2 goals across their last 5 outings and registered 0 goals here. Their clean sheet record stood at 50% before this loss. Simeone's side created few clear openings in a disciplined but ineffective performance.

Run-in & context

The result extended Arsenal's unbeaten run in this fixture to two matches and reinforced their Champions League credentials. Atletico Madrid remained 13 positions behind Arsenal in the group standings, their European campaign increasingly pressured. Our model indicated the outcome reflected Arsenal's superior conversion rate rather than dominant possession; the 1-0 scoreline accurately captured the match's competitive nature and defensive intensity.

Injury impact

  • Arsenal have a near-full squad available.

  • Atletico Madrid have a near-full squad available.

Venue

Emirates Stadium

London, England

60,383grass

Weather

Weather data unavailable for this venue.

Set pieces

  • Arsenal4.0 corners / g
  • Atletico MadridUnavailable

Match Probabilities

Full-Time Result

60%
23%
18%
59.7%Arsenal
22.6%Draw
17.8%Atletico Madrid

Both Teams to Score

48%
Yes 48.3%No 51.7%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

50%
Yes 50.1%No 49.9%

Goals Markets

Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
29%
More Markets

Double Chance

1X
63.2%
12
6.8%
X2
29.9%

Half-Time Result

Arsenal
42.1%
Draw
38.4%
Atletico Madrid
19.5%

BTTS in Both Halves

Yes
11.1%
No
88.9%

Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · Past performance does not guarantee future results · BeGambleAware (UK): 0808 802 0133.

Match Centre

Lineups, live stats, full odds comparison, and in-depth match data for Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid.

View Match Centre

SSR Ratings & Movement

Metric
Arsenal crestArsenal
Atletico Madrid crestAtletico Madrid
Overall1672+13.31591-13.3
Attack1647-2.01573-8.0
Defence1528+9.21494+0.8
Goals Index1481-10.91461-9.1
BTTS Index1507-10.11493-9.9

📝 Post-Match Analysis

Arsenal 1-0 Atletico Madrid: A Narrow Win That Tells a Bigger Story

Arsenal edged past Atletico Madrid with a single goal to claim three points in the UEFA Champions League, but the manner of the victory reveals as much about their structure and preparation as the sco...

Sophie Hargreaves7 May
Read full analysis

Form Guide (Last 5)

Arsenal crestArsenal
Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid crest
WWWWW
LWWLW
5-0-0Record (W-D-L)3-0-2
8Goals Scored6
80%Clean Sheet %40%
20%BTTS %40%

Head-to-Head

2 meetings
Matches
Venue
ArsenalDrawsAtletico Madrid
1W (50%)1D (50%)0W (0%)
1.5
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
0%
Over 2.5
MarketCountRateStreak
BTTS (Yes)1/250%-
Over 2.50/20%-
Over 1.51/250%-
Under 2.52/2100%2
Arsenal Clean Sheet1/250%1
Atletico Madrid Clean Sheet0/20%-

Match History

5 May 26
ArsenalArsenal crest
1-0
Atletico Madrid crestAtletico Madrid
W
29 Apr 26
Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid crest
1-1
Arsenal crestArsenal
D

Match facts at a glance

Kickoff
Venue
Emirates Stadium, London · capacity 60,383
Last meeting
Arsenal 1-0 Atletico Madrid (5 May 2026)
Head-to-head record
Arsenal 0W · 1D · 0L Atletico Madrid (1 meetings)
Top scorer · Arsenal
Gabriel Jesus (2 goals)
Most yellows · Arsenal
Gabriel Jesus (6 YC)
Most yellows · Atletico Madrid
Taufik Seidu (2 YC)
BTTS this season · Arsenal
20%
BTTS this season · Atletico Madrid
40%
Our prediction
Arsenal to win (60%)

Frequently Asked Questions

Curious how this prediction was produced? See our methodology.

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All predictions and analysis on this page are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as betting advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Odds displayed are sourced from third-party bookmakers and are subject to change. SportSignals may receive commission from bookmaker links on this page.

Last updated 12 days ago ·