St Helens vs North Ferriby
St Helens
DDLast 5
Kicks off in
6h 54m
North Ferriby
DWLast 5
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Jay Thompson · 30 July 2026
Last updated: 31 July 2026. Seven days out and we are starting to get somewhere with this one.
Right. North Ferriby versus St Helens. FA Cup. Saturday 8 August. Two o'clock kickoff. And look, I know what you are thinking. You are thinking Jay, mate, this is the very early rounds of the FA Cup, what on earth are you going on about. And fair enough. But this is exactly the kind of game I love. Proper grassroots football with a famous old competition attached to it. The magic of the cup and all that. I mean it genuinely, not ironically. Well... mostly genuinely.
So we have got our predictions data in now and I actually looked at the numbers for once and they are telling an interesting story. The model gives North Ferriby a 57.3% chance of winning this. Not exactly a ringing endorsement but it is a majority. They are at home, they have won their only game of the new season, and they kept a clean sheet doing it. St Helens, on the other hand, drew their only game. One game each, neither team has played loads, but the home advantage is doing a bit of work here.
What is interesting, and I mean actually interesting, is what the model reckons happens during the game. Both teams to score is priced up at a 58% chance. Over 2.5 goals is even stronger at 64%. So the model is saying North Ferriby probably win... but it might not be pretty or clean. You might get a proper scrap. Goals at both ends. Maybe 2-1, maybe 3-2. The vibes are very much goals and chaos rather than a dominant home display.
North Ferriby are the home side and they are coming in with a W from their only result so far this season. Goals for: one. Goals against: zero. Clean sheet percentage sitting at 100% which sounds incredible until you remember it is literally one game. Still, a win is a win. They are comfortable at home, the early momentum is there, and the model backs them to be leading at half-time too with a 43% probability. That is not massive but it is the most likely single outcome for the break.
Look at the fixtures and you can see this is genuinely their chance to make a mark in the cup. Early rounds of the FA Cup are where non-league clubs build something. Get through here, you get another game, maybe a better draw, maybe a bit of prize money. North Ferriby will know the stakes. You do not need a tactical briefing to understand that this matters to them.
St Helens come in having drawn their only game. Both teams scored in that one. Their BTTS percentage across all their recent data is sitting at 100% which again, one game, but still. They are not a side that is going to sit back and be passive. They contributed to a game with goals, they showed they could find the net. If North Ferriby think this is going to be a comfortable Sunday stroll... well, the model is already telling you it probably will not be.
The worry for St Helens is they are going away from home here and their away form shows the same one game, one draw picture. They have not won away. Honestly the sample size is so small I would not read too much into it but combined with the home advantage for Ferriby, it does point in one direction for the result.
No injury news to report at this stage which is either great or just means nobody has filed anything yet. We will keep an eye on that as we get closer to kickoff.
Right here is where I earn my keep. The model says North Ferriby win. I agree. Home advantage, slightly better form indicator so far, and the cup always favours the home side in these early rounds. But I do not think it is clean. That BTTS signal at 58% and Over 2.5 at 64% is too strong to ignore.
My read is something like a 2-1 to North Ferriby. Maybe 3-1 if they get rolling. St Helens will not roll over but Ferriby at home in the cup with a full crowd behind them? Trust the process... no wait, I never say that seriously. Let me just say: North Ferriby to do it.
I'm going big on this. Well, as big as you can go on a game with one match of data on each side. Here is my thinking for anyone wanting to stick this in a weekend acca.
North Ferriby to win AND both teams to score. That 57% win probability and that 58% BTTS signal are pointing in the same direction. They are not the same market and they both stack up independently. Combine them and you are looking at a longer price that genuinely has logic behind it. Not just me throwing darts at a board. Mostly not that anyway.
Don't @ me if St Helens nick it one nil. Actually do @ me because at least that means you are reading this and then we can have a chat about it.
Back to the drawing board if it goes wrong. It usually does. But not this time. Probably.
This is the FA Cup in its purest form. Two clubs, a Saturday afternoon, everything to play for, and absolutely no safety net. North Ferriby are slight favourites and I back that. But St Helens are not just turning up to make the numbers work. Expect goals, expect a bit of madness, and expect the kind of scenes that remind you why the cup is special.
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This FA Cup replay follows a 2-2 draw in the first meeting. St Helens sit in a precarious position with 2 draws from 5 games; North Ferriby's single win suggests they've found form at the right moment. Our model indicates divergent defensive trends; St Helens concede regularly while North Ferriby have tightened up considerably.
St Helens have drawn their last two matches, including a 2-2 with North Ferriby. They've scored 3 goals across five games but conceded the same; our model flags zero clean sheets in recent outings. Both recent fixtures ended level, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities despite solid attacking output.
North Ferriby won 1-0 at Liversedge after drawing 2-2 with St Helens. They've posted one clean sheet in their last five and scored just 1 goal across recent matches. Their defensive record shows 100% BTTS avoidance, contrasting sharply with St Helens' pattern.
Correct means the selection settled as won on the 90-minute result. Every selection counted here was recorded before kickoff. Past performance does not guarantee future results.