Racing Santander vs Deportivo Alaves prediction, odds and how to watch

Three games into the 2026/27 La Liga season, Racing Santander find themselves at 14th in the table with a single point to their name. The data tells a particular story about how that point arrived. Their one home fixture has ended in a draw, two goals scored, two goals conceded. A clean sheet percentage of zero at home. A pattern is forming, and it is not yet one that suggests structural confidence at the back.

Deportivo Alaves, by contrast, sit second in the division. One win, one draw, four goals scored and only one conceded. Rewind to their xG figures for those two fixtures and the picture sharpens considerably. They have generated 3.4 expected goals while conceding chances worth just 0.9. That is not a team riding fortune. That is a team whose preparation has produced high-quality opportunities and limited the opposition to very little in meaningful positions. That is a coaching issue in the best possible sense, where the structure is doing the work.

What Racing Santander Need to Figure Out

The thing nobody is talking about with Racing this season is the gap between their xG output and their actual results. Through two games they have produced 3.2 expected goals but allowed 1.9, which means on balance they are creating more than the scoreline suggests and conceding less dangerously than a zero clean sheet percentage implies. The underlying numbers are not alarming. But the actual results are. That disconnect is worth watching closely, because it suggests the problem is not in the pattern of play itself but in the moments of transition and defensive organisation around set pieces and quick transitions.

Watch this. In their home fixture, Racing conceded twice despite an xG against of roughly 0.95 per game across the two matches. Goals are arriving from somewhere other than where the main defensive structure is pointing. That is a coaching issue that needs addressing before Sunday, because Alaves have shown they can find those pockets of space.

Their form across the last ten games in all competitions, pulled from a different league context, paints a more detailed picture of Racing's character. Seven wins, two draws, one defeat. Goals for 28, goals against 15. A team that, when functioning, is capable of sustained attacking output. The question is whether their La Liga structure at this level is catching up with those expectations. Two games is a small sample. But the momentum slope is negative, and that is a reference point any analyst would note.

Alaves and the Pattern That Should Concern Racing

Deportivo Alaves carry into this fixture a momentum slope of positive 0.1 across their last ten overall, and their away record in recent games is notable. In their last five away fixtures across all contexts, they have won one, drawn three and lost one, scoring seven and conceding seven. The clean sheet percentage away from home is 20 percent, and both teams have scored in 80 percent of those matches.

That away BTTS figure of 80 percent is a significant detail. Alaves tend to commit to their game plan even on the road, pushing bodies forward and trusting their defensive structure to hold. Their possession average sits at 50 percent, their shots on target per game at four. They are not a team that parks and absorbs. They look for a reference point in the opponent's half and build from it.

Rewind to what that means for a Racing side hosting at El Sardinero. If Alaves bring their usual movement and trigger their press in the Racing half, they will ask questions of a home defence that has not yet kept a clean sheet this season. The combination of Racing's xG against profile and Alaves's commitment to attacking football in away fixtures creates conditions where goals on both sides feel more likely than not.

The Context That Matters

Last season, Alaves finished 14th in La Liga with 43 points from 38 games, 11 wins and 17 defeats. Racing, competing at a different level last season, are back in the top flight and finding their footing. The step up in class is a relevant piece of context. A team finding its defensive triggers against La Liga quality, facing a side already settled and creating at an xG level well above one per game, is a significant test.

Alaves's xG against of 0.9 across two games tells you their defensive shape is functioning well in this early period. Racing, meanwhile, have an xG against of 1.9, nearly a full expected goal more than Alaves per game. That structural gap is the clearest indicator of where the advantage in this fixture sits.

There is no head to head data available from recent meetings to draw on. Racing's home form this season amounts to one game. Alaves have played once away and drawn. Both teams are finding their rhythm. But the underlying numbers point firmly in one direction.

The Betting Angle

My focus here is on the both teams to score market. Racing have failed to keep a clean sheet in either of their two games, and their home fixture specifically produced goals at both ends. Alaves score freely enough in away fixtures that a blank from them looks unlikely given Racing's defensive numbers. The structure of this game points toward an open contest where both sides find the net. If you want the sharper line, look at the Alaves Asian handicap as a secondary consideration, with their xG profile and standings position providing a clear reference point. I will not go further than that until I see clearer data on Racing's defensive set-piece organisation, because that is where the real risk lies for any clean sheet position on either side.

This is a match where the preparation advantage looks to sit with the away side, and where the trigger for goals arriving at both ends feels built into the structure of how each team has set up so far. Watch the first twenty minutes carefully. The pattern usually reveals itself early.