PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior: Post-match analysis

Right, so. Two teams absolutely desperate for points at the bottom end of the Eredivisie table. A proper scrap at the MAC³PARK Stadion. And what do we get? A 2-2 draw that had everything... early goal, a comeback, a second-half lead, and then Excelsior nicking it back with ten minutes to go. Scenes. Honestly, this is exactly the kind of game that keeps both sets of fans in a permanent state of anxiety. Henry van der Vegt's side looked like they had it won and then... didn't. That's the brutal summary. Let's get into it.

Fast Start, Slow Burn

Three minutes. THREE minutes. Thijs Oosting puts Zwolle ahead before most people had finished their coffee. On artificial turf at home, with a crowd behind you... that is the perfect start. PEC were flying. The vibes were good. You could feel it coming. And look, when you score that early, you are supposed to kick on. You are supposed to put the game to bed. Instead, Excelsior came back into it almost immediately. Derensili Sanches Fernandes equalised on 16 minutes and suddenly it was a completely different match. All that early momentum? Gone. Ruben den Uil will have been delighted with that response from his side, because coming back from a deficit when your form reads DLDLL takes some doing.

Zwolle Had the Better of It... So How Did They Not Win?

Here is the maddening thing. Look at the stats. PEC Zwolle had 11 shots inside the box to Excelsior's 9. Five shots on target to three. Their goalkeeper only had to make 1 save all game. One! Excelsior's keeper was working much harder, pulling off 3 saves to keep his side in it. On almost every attacking measure, Zwolle were the better team. And yet... 2-2. That is football, mate. That is the game being cruel. Odysseus Velanas puts them ahead on 60 minutes and you are thinking right, this is it, three points, van der Vegt gets a big result at home. Then Velanas gets subbed off literally two minutes later, which is a bold call, and Szymon Włodarczyk punishes them on 80 minutes. Back to square one.

Shots & Chances Breakdown: PEC Zwolle xG: 2.66, Excelsior xG: 1.62, PEC Zwolle Total Shots: 15, Excelsior Total Shots: 16, PEC Zwolle Shots on Target: 5, Excelsior Shots on Target: 3

Now look, I am not usually one for the xG stuff... I reckon half the people who cite it don't actually know what the G stands for... but even I have to admit that 2.66 to 1.62 is telling a story here. Zwolle created the better chances. Proper inside-the-box stuff. The kind of chances you expect to win games with. Excelsior meanwhile had 7 shots from outside the box. Seven! That is a lot of hopeful pinging from distance. When you are pinning your hopes on long-range efforts and your goalkeeper has to make 3 saves... you are not meant to come away with a point. And yet.

The Substitution That Raised Eyebrows

Can we just talk about this for a second. Odysseus Velanas scores the go-ahead goal on 60 minutes. Brilliant. Massive moment. And then on 62 minutes he is taken off. Two minutes later. He scores and he is straight back down the tunnel. Now look, I am not saying van der Vegt got it wrong because I do not know what was going on tactically or whether the lad picked up a knock. But from the outside? That looks strange. Ryan Jared Thomas came on at the same time, and Koen Kostons followed at 74 minutes. Excelsior made their own triple change around the 79-minute mark, bringing on Rick Meissen and pulling off Irakli Yegoian who had picked up a yellow on 53 minutes. Smart management there from den Uil, getting the booked player off before he did something silly. And within a minute of those Excelsior changes... Włodarczyk grabs the equaliser. Tell me that is coincidence.

Odysseus Velanas, Szymon Włodarczyk, Thijs Oosting

What This Means in the Table

Right, context. Because this result matters a lot more than just a game. Look at the standings. Zwolle sit 13th on 34 points from 30 matches. Their record reads 8 wins, 10 draws, 12 losses. A draw at home when you are trying to pull clear of danger is... fine, I suppose, but only fine. Look at the fixtures they have left and how badly they need wins rather than draws. Their home record is actually decent, 7 wins from 15 home games, so dropping points here hurts. Excelsior are in a worse spot on paper. 15th, 28 points from 30 matches, 7 wins, 7 draws, 16 losses. Their form going in was DLDLL which is grim reading. A point away from home... honestly, Ruben den Uil might take that. Their away record is 3 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses from 15 away games so they are not exactly setting the world alight on their travels. But a point is a point when you are down there.

The Possession Myth

One more thing before we wrap up. Excelsior had 51 percent of the ball. More passes completed, 320 to 312. More total passes, 428 to 408. On paper that looks like a team in control. But they had fewer shots on target, their goalkeeper worked harder, and they were trailing going into the final ten minutes. This is the thing about possession... it only counts for something if you do damage with it. Zwolle were more direct, more dangerous in the box, and had 5 corners to Excelsior's 2 on the day. Excelsior's seasonal corner average is just 1 per game, so they actually overperformed their usual set piece output here. Zwolle average 2 corners per game themselves so that 5 today suggests they were really pushing and probing. The draw does not tell the full story. It never does.

Final Thought

Two teams who both needed three points. Neither got them. That six-point gap between 13th and 15th stays exactly as it is. The artificial surface at MAC³PARK Stadion is supposed to be a leveller but it did not help Zwolle today when it mattered most. Honestly, this was the Eredivisie at its most chaotic and brilliant. A team scores at 60 minutes and you think the game is done... then a substitution wave at 79 minutes flips everything. Madness. Van der Vegt will be frustrated. Den Uil will be relieved. And the relegation scrap continues. You heard it here first... there are going to be more draws like this before this season is out. Don't @ me.