Win to Nil Betting: Score Matrix and Settlement

Score matrix for home win to nil

Both conditions must hold. Betfair's current football rules provide one operator reference for the qualifying football period and settlement.

Win to nil versus BTTS No

BTTS No wins whenever at least one team scores zero. Home win to nil wins only a subset of those scores.

Do not use a BTTS No probability as a home win-to-nil probability. The selected team must also win.

Build the probability from a score grid

Calculate the direct score-model probability by summing every home-win-to-nil cell:

P(home win to nil) = P(1-0) + P(2-0) + P(3-0) + ...

Suppose an illustrative complete score grid assigns 0.36 to that sum. At decimal odds 3.00 for one unit:

Win profit = 3 - 1 = 2

Loss probability = 1 - 0.36 = 0.64

EV = (0.36 * 2) - (0.64 * 1) = 0.08

The grid must also retain the unlisted high-score tail so its full probability sums to one. Dixon and Coles provide one football score-modelling approach with low-score dependence (Dixon and Coles, 1997); the illustrative 36% is not drawn from that paper or a live match.

Return example

For an illustrative GBP 10 stake at decimal odds 3.00:

Gross return = 10 * 3 = 30

Net profit = 30 - 10 = 20

The full GBP 10 loses if the selected team draws, loses, or concedes at least once, subject to void rules.

Analysis checks

1. Confirm selected team and qualifying period.
2. Define win and zero-conceded as a joint event.
3. Sum score-grid cells that satisfy both conditions.
4. Include high-score residual probability.
5. Test the score model on later fixtures and check calibration.
6. Compare with the accepted price and exact product rule.

Check probability-set relationships

Calculate home win to nil as a subset of both Home Win and BTTS No. A valid model must therefore satisfy:

• P(Home win to nil) <= P(Home win)
• P(Home win to nil) <= P(BTTS No)
• P(Home win to nil) <= P(Home clean sheet)

Build the value by summing 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, and every retained higher home-win-to-zero cell. Do not include 0-0, because the selected team did not win, or away wins to zero, because the named team did not win.

Check score-mapper tests for 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 2-0, 2-1, and an awarded result. Then reconcile the sum of home win to nil, away win to nil, 0-0, and both-teams-score partitions against the complete score grid. Any overlap or missing probability points to an outcome-classification error rather than useful model disagreement.

Next step

Use Btts Betting Explained for the next part of this topic.

Continue learning

• Next guide: European vs Asian Handicap Betting
• Related guide: Scorecast and Wincast Betting

Assumptions and limitations

Probabilities, prices, and scores are illustrative. DraftKings' soccer rules and Betfair are operator examples. Own goals, awarded matches, abandonment, extra time, and enhanced products can alter settlement.